By Joseph O. Odhok,
March 14, 2016(Nyamilepedia) —— Those who follow closely the development of events in South Sudan are likely to come up with possible several scenarios that could take shape in the near future. Progress in peace implementation modalities is characterized by ambiguity and vagueness. There seems to be lack of confidence between the parties and also a lack of commitment by the government as it continues to lay obstacle after obstacle on the way of implementation. With the current situation of the standstill of the peace process, one of the following scenarios is likely to happen in the near future:
- Formation of TGoNU and subsequently the States Governments
- Resumption of Full Scale War over Refusal of Government to revert to 10 States or
- Collapse of Government due to Economic Decline.
South Sudanese, the Regional and International Communities would want to see the first scenario happening, and as soon as possible. JMEC and the TROIKA are working tirelessly to make it happen. They have already stockpiled various life necessities for the SPLA/IO advance team and other arrangements are ongoing for airlifting of the forces to Juba. The Government will ferry the forces to where they will finally be lifted by TROIKA.
The second scenario will happen in the event that after the formation of the TGoNU, the two parties do not agree on the number and boundaries of States. An eventuality of which puts the government under obligation to revert to 10 States as provided in the IGAD,s Ministerial Communiqué . Any insistence by the government to stick to its unilaterally created 28 States will spark inter community wars on one hand, and between the government with its allies against the SPLA/IO with it allies.
The probability of the 3rd scenario, the collapse of the government due to economic pressures, is most likely to happen for the following reasons:
There are a number of political synthesis which suggest that Kiir and his cronies —name them— are not ready to give in to regional and international pressures to implement the Peace agreement with its current provisions for a multiple of reasons:
- Eventual lost of power to the Opposition,
- fear of indictment for crimes committed against humanity— by some army generals and powerful politicians ,
- fear of lost of positions by supporters and relatives in the security sector and public institutions as a result of institutional reforms in line with the new revised transitional constitution of the Country and
- With the new set-up of the Legislature—Reinstatement of former MPs+ appointment of 68 new MPs will shift the majority in favour of the opposition.
The regime believes it can cling on to power for generations to come and bases it its fancy idea on the account of current political status in the region where many incumbent leaders have exhibited a desire of ruling for life through oppression and suppression of their people. No matter what it takes to achieve that. “The end has always justifies the means”.
The transition of power from Salva Kiir (according to their belief) would be only to a successor of Jieng descent and that will be at his convenient time.
Therefore, the regime will employ every possible means and strategy that will impede the peace implementation process and maintain the status quo. And which is why it has embarked on strategies such as: the operationalization of 28 States, rejection of SPLA/IO cantonment areas in Greater Equatoria and Greater Bahr El Gazal, continued military operations across the country and the recent massacre of IDPs in Malakal UNMISS Protection Site.
The AU with its child, IGAD together with the UN are playing an observer’s role whose presence in the country means nothing in terms of protection of civilians.Since they could allow massacre of civilians under their protection without intervening, their presence is seen as of no value. Malakal IDPs Civilian Protection Site incident stands out as a striking example. Why would anyone treat him ( Kiir )differently, if Rwanda’s Kigame under the pretext of the Hutus genocide of the Tutsi tribe, could send his army and massacre as many as 2000 Hutus IDPs in Kibeyeho camp and later on follows them into the DR of Congo, destroys their camps and massacres them in millions while the world watch on and he still gets away with it!!!
Kiir’s thirst for blood is yet quenched. If the incidents of 15th December 2013 through the war have not taught them manners, he is ready to go on hunting them exactly as Rwanda’s Kigame had done to the Hutus. But in this particular case he will be doing it to the non-Jieng!
Kiir wants to rule for life. He has already enlisted the support of Musevini and perhaps the support of Kigame as well. Kigame had waged his war against Rwanda from Uganda and with the support of Yoweri K. Musevini .Later after ascension of Kigame to power, both Musevini and Kigame invaded the DR of Congo and carried out killings and pillage under the pretext of pursuing dissidents of their respective countries. In fact Juba and Kigali have good diplomatic relations and a cooperation agreement in the Security Sector. It is assumed or according to Inmates of UN Malakal Protection Site, that the Rwandese Blue Helmets are in one way or another, implicated in the incident that killed over 40 and injured over 120 people and over sixty missing. But this is yet to be proven as the probe into the incident is underway.
Now with the stalemate of peace and no clear sign of the parties to the conflict reaching agreement on modalities any time soon, the country seems headed to a total disintegration and chaos.
The economic decline has reached its peak and impacted severely on all walks of life in the country with most if not all of the businesses closing down. Importing assorted food commodities and other goods without matching purchasing power by the citizen will not be good for business. So businessmen would only bring in quantities that could be consumed in proportion to the purchasing power. The market hiking prices is a result of a declining SSP against the US Dollar. These sky rocketing market prices don’t match the citizens’ purchasing power due to devaluation of the currency. The consequences is that we are threaten with hunger and diseases which in turn threaten our life and with this, a spontaneous situation of looting and killing may surface, started by armed elements and would gradually engulf the towns and then the breakdown of the public order.
Based on this sequence of events, the writing may be on the wall for President Kiir’s regime. But Who will fill the Constitutional Vacuum of South Sudan? Would it be the SPLA/IO marching to Juba and taking over the power? Or might be one the SPLA generals declares himself President! or the JMEC Chairman urges the AU/UN Security Council to place the country under Un Mandate?
Only the coming days have the appropriate answer. But also a contingent plan by JMEC to maintain security and protect civilians is imperative.
The author is a concern South Sudanese and can be reached at josephodhok@yahoo.com
16 comments
Dear Joseph,
Let me remind you that the SPLM-IO has 3 possible scenarios of no escape:
1-Disintegration of SPLM-IO into Nuer sub-clan base rebellion as evidenced by the formation of SPLM-IO II,NRM,SSDP and FDP.
2-The people of South Sudan will reject Dr.Riek Machar over his wrangling for the operationalization of 28 States.
3-Or you wait for 2018 general elections and accept the defeat.
We will fill the constitutional vacuum in South Sudan as we had defeated a shroud like Dr.Riek Machar.
Okay, but the worse scenario in both of your comments, is truly that the mastermind killer garbage Kiir drunk too much.He’s ready to die with his alcoholic desires in his very own office. You wish to defeated Dr.Machar,however, prepare yourself to choice another authoritarian leader.
I mean to choose another monkey type of authoritarian ruler in your deadly country.
Every scenario joted down here, looks good and encouraging to all peace lovers. This will make us walk on beek’s and tolio’s dirty tongues. Those who hate reforms still do dream of defeating the IO. Let them keep on sleeping and dreaming. Reforms are already on the way weather they like it or not and if any jenge does not like peace then we the Peace lovers will push for any of these scenarios to happen.
I know the jenge will accept peace, we force it on them if they do not want. the jenge have looted all the Public fund. No more salaries to pay working class Citizen. Definately People will reject jenge the looters. It has started these days in Juba. People complain too much and the jenge are already shivering of the future.
beek and tolio know this very well. Reforms will take time to take Place but for sure they will take Place without fail.
Poor Dingic Na Tuggok,
Your comment is not worth replying b’se I don’t believe that cowards who hide behind unknown
names like you will talk of nonsense here in Juba.Your hatred against Jieng will drive you back to where you lived as onlooker during the liberation time.I hope you ‘re just a food lover and not one traitor of 1991.
Finally,I want to assure you that Jieng have a strong unity and unshakable strength now to bring you down any time if necessary.
Weather or weather forecast today here is 8 degrees Celsius.
Formation of unity government isn’t a matter of prediction or speculations. This is a commitment which all the signatories to the peace accord have agreed to make happen . It is stipulated in the peace accord that a temporary shared multiparty government must be formed.
It aught to be mentioned that the government has done a marvelous job of sanctioning the appointment of Dr Riek Machar to first vice presidency and partially demilitarizing the capital city in accommodation to deployment of the anticipated joint security units. No obstacles from the government other than the fact TROIKA haven’t yet flown a part of the joint security forces from Dr Machar’s camp to Juba for some reasons. Transporting those soldiers from Fangak to the nation’s capital isn’t a responsibility of government as is known.
In regards to new states,some are either in processes of taking off or fully operationalized. Even if the government refuses to suspend them, it won’t cause a full scale war. With exception of Chollos who claim their land is annexed to Pandeng Dinkas which isnt true. Shilluks’s Heritage is in western Malakal Town where statues of their kings and ancient anthropological remains or antifacts are found in abundant. the rest have no similar issues with their neighbors. Bloodshedding is not a resort to such a dispute. Diplomacy is the solution. Other tribes like Equatorians,for instance, have no Dinkas to fight since their land isn’t given to non-Equatorian tribes. No land of Nuer tribe is given to Dinkas and thus some Nuer people under the SPLM-IO have no legitimate reasons other than politically motivated tribal hatred directed at Dinka minority in the region. The same is worth mentioning in considerations of other tribes nationwide. It is prematureness to blame non-formation of transitional government or its delayment on the incumbents as a result of that.
There, exists, the myth that repartitions of three main regions are designed in the way that Dinkas will dominate other tribes. This assertion isn’t true and a clear mistrust based on false assumptions. Redivisions of states to increase them doesn’t mean breaking up chemistries between sub clans of each tribe or making dysfunctional their good relations with other tribes.
To the chances of SPLM-IO matching to Juba and take the management by force, it should be mentioned that such a wish is contrary to the peace agreement signed. It never is a liking from the peace sponsors. The SPLM-IO is confined to Upper Nile from where its leader and 98% of his loyalists come. The government controls the main major towns in upper Nile, and every where. A proof that the SPLM-IO has never had such a momentum to sweep through Juba and will never is, except in mental delusions of its supporters who should put the welfare the nation first before their tribal identities. There is more to enjoy in making your country works better than trying to make it functions through thinking your tribes are better than decent Dinka people.
Finally, the government will never collapse as a repercussion of no availability of the US dollars in South Sudan. President Benjamin Franklin whose photos of his head is engraved in the US Dollar is no South Sudanese,he was the president of American people from the North. How he, Franklin, got that fame amongst Americans to inscribed his head in the Dollar is nothing for which South Sudanese Should hate. He must have meant importance to Americans.
President Kiir is a leftover alive from 1.5 millions Sudanese whose lives were lost mostly from the South. He unwaveringly defended every South Sudanese tribe from attrocious Khartoum regimes while he was both in Anya Nya I and II. American people had never gone through that ordeal with South Sudanese like Kiir,though American efforts are highly valued and appreciated for helping South Sudanese to achieve their independence through peaceful efforts. Their efforts are not a substitute for the courageous acts of those like President Kiir who had no good life given to him and his people from South Sudan who were faced with killings, enslavement, forced religious conversion, exploitation, racial discrimination and economic marginalization.
Doctor Riek Machar who is supposed to be devoted helping all South Sudanese fighting those above mentioned causes killed innocent civilians in 1991,now boasts about his education and idea for the independent of South Sudan which he failed in 1997 after the agreement he struck with the NIF regime didn’t work.
He was befriended again unconditionally with Dr Garang and Kiir whose efforts simultaneously and every body else brought the true independence of South Sudan.
It is unfortunate that Dr Machar and you, his supporters, care much about hatred for Dinkas,despite the fact that Dinkas had never Killed Nuer civilians in 1991 or known to have killed other tribes.
Our unity regardless our tribal backgrounds is the best solutions for own security and rising of nation through economically.
akot mathiangpöt and beek the kiir’s cattle keepers,
who cares of 1991 case which has got any document at all. I once told those who think of 1991 issue as a Complete gone case or go to hell following the document of that case which our leader Dr. John Garang took With him.
stupid akot…..where have you been, come on and let me lecture you. You must Accept us in Juba or you have to run away. we are here to stay and to put this country up right. We are tired of you land grabbing, rapping, massacre and all evil of any kind.
I tell you again that you are going to pay for any evil you do. Follow the News and understand that you are rubbish who is crying day and night because you are going to face true justice. You need not to compare yourself With any human been than comparing yourself to your cows and their dung. Do you get me right. You idiot. Follow the economy, follow the every day’s killing in this country. go and fix the remnants of your teeth and if you do not, the IO will knock the rest from your dirty mouth so that your mouth looks exactly like your anus, Come on, say a Word am waiting.
tolio,
you are now seing the hatred towards the jenge by the 63 tribes as reality. And starting talking about having unity. Where have you been when we were telling we were pointing out the mistakes of your jenge Council of awirin?
I tell again and again that you have to forget about the the 1991 issue. It has got no any document. The document that exist is the one of the 2013 massacre, the killing of the IDP in Malakal, the safocating of civilians in the containers by the dinka soldiers in Leer, the daily killing in Juba. And this will take Your leaders to hague. You have to believe and if you do not, the law will force you to do that as your were forced to Accept peace.
Your calling for unity will never Clear you from your evil doings. Already the international community talk of Your evils day and night. You Madness is not longer a hidden agenda. No body believes what ever you say. Do you really stay here in Juba? Listen how People talk about this suffering brought on them by the jenge tribe. Just Accept to avoid Your evil plans and join the IO to work for Peace and reforms.
Do not forget what you wrote about being the majority tribe which won in the name of Democracy inorder to oppress the minority. But be informed that every minority tribe is now gearing to get its share and this is to rally behing the IO without any fail. Remember that politics can be won in coalation.
DINGIT NA TUGGÖ
Dinkas have nothing to lose from your hatred of them. Any sentiment of Dinkas from other tribes is a trivial matter. What is important is the need for developing the country first and that is the point.
Nobody should forget the killings of Dinka civilians in 1991.The mass graves are now being salvage. The world already knows the background to those atrocities. There is nothing known as forgotten murders. The offenders are known and still alive. You take this as a joke because none of your Equatorians were massacred that time and as long as you are advocating tribal hatred you will get a bitter taste of it one day,as well.
There is no genocide ever happened in Juba in 2013. The inquiry commission has ruled it out.
tolio,
you are an idiot, are you the only one who is not aware of jenge who continue grabbing land until brother Thomas Cirilo is forced to respond. You need to pretend like you do not know about the landgrabbing in equatoria. We do not take this easy.
Dingit NA TUGGÖ
Land grabbing is not policy of government. If you know someone who has taken your plot of land, take them to court.
Khartoum regimes commandeered your land in the past and you didn’t even complained about it. You instead fled Juba for the refugee camp. Now that Dinkas liberated Equatoria from the NIF, you start bitching about the land grabbing.
All Dinkas have done is built you houses with balconies in Juba where you now drink South Sudanese White Bull Beer with your vagina backwards -lol.
tolio With vagina in the mouth,
hahahahahahaa…………………………tolio, stand infront of the mirrow if you have inorder to check your toothless mouth which looks exactly like your mother’s vagina. Why you carry your sister’s vagina this way?
you idiot, can I tell you what you lost? the 10 ministries given to the galant IO and those given to the G10 and those to the OPPOSITION PARTIES is a great lost to the jenge tribe. Gradually you are going to lose alot, Count on my Words. We are pushing very hard and I know very well you are already feeling the pain in your ass. Shame on you by denying the fact all the time. Can I ask you this questin. What do you say about the collapsing of the South Sudan economy, is it a lie or fact? arian jenge are losing day and night, arian jenge are crying day and night, jenge abu nyalama are thinking too much about the mistakes which will take their leaders to the international Law.
You talk of carrying a massacre in Juba or equatoria again. I know you will never do it again. You are already afraid. Can I tell you how we kill our bulls? We tie its testicles and it dies in slow motion but in too much pain. You are already in pain. I love seing you grinding Your only two teeth in Your mouth which looks exactly like Your dirty anus. Come on, am waiting for Your to tell mor lies.
I do feel the changes which is in favour of the OP. What kind of changes do you see in Your favour. The collapse of the economy is in the favour of the OP and is a curse to Your rule. Do you really know this. Of course you do not know for you are a stupid cow who knows only to mix himself With a cow dung. Have a look at the countries boardering us. Do they have so many rebellion as we have. This is the result of the poor rule of Your tribe. We are not giving up, it is not yet over til it is over. I am so happy that some ministries are taken away from Your rule and soon the constitution will be ammended where by kiir will lose more Powers. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA…………….Let us watch what tomorrow brings, a lost to the jenge of course hahahahaha
DINGIT NA TUGGÖ
Mirror is the correct spelling, not mirrow. You little punky fanny midget who gives chimpanzees fkerlicker should have been given proper education of learning English as fking Language (EFL) but both your whiskered pussied mother and sisters choose to spend money which your hairy ass gorilla like dad earns on buying bananas.hahaaaa.
We have more allies in Equatoria and everywhere more than the oppositions. The number of ministries given to them are more hollow in pragmatism than the ones which the government has. So, nobody sees these as lost and therefore only fkersucker like you gives a flying fk about them.
The economy as you say is not working in favor of opposition. We recently signed a membership with EAC,which means flow of trades and flourishing of the nation. We are opening more oilfields and sanctioning explorations of natural resources such as goal to increase production outputs meanwhile the oil prices are improving in overseas markets worldwide. Little oil revenue and taxes will be used to run our sixteen ministries and paying of our human resource personnel.
It is the oppositions who aren’t getting paid and IDPs they kept in the camps enduring solitary conditions who are at lost,not the government.
Recent developments have shown that the SPLM-IO is losing members through defections. Members of the FD are more aligned to government than to the SPLM-IO as examplified by Chol Tong from the Lake State This movement is in fact disintegrating and as long as Riek Machar wastes his time touring African countries instead of coming to Juba, so has he more to keep losing.
In Equatoria where you are deluded with nonsense, the new states are almost in complete full operationalizations. It is happening in your face while you have no power to haul such crucial moves.
Militarily, we are well equipped with extra war birds, missiles,and ground scrawling assault toys.we mean power,you fuck face.
DINGIT NA TUGGÖ
Your Mother and your sisters are root nuggets.
The correct word is mirror, not Mirrow, you nincompoop.
I maintain that nothing is in favor of oppositions.
They have either come to Juba or still will come to Juba to reoccupy their previous positions. That’s nothing new but only truism.
No braveries of oppositions substitute the boldness of the incumbents.
You are the usual failures to change anyone’s attitudes through Rebellions.