August 4, 2015(Nyamilepedia) — What became 15th December, 2013’s ethnic violence pitting the Nuer and Dinka was not the two groups’ exclusive political affair. If any, is the microcosm of a wider national issue, personalized by two major ethnic groups.
Due to their history of hate and power struggle in South Sudan, the two took the matter up on themselves. Otherwise, core issues driving the wedge between Kiir and Machar are socio-political and economic malignancies ailing the whole country.
These differences, as always stated, are tribalism, corruption and inequitable distribution of power and resources among all ethnic groups. All these ills have been complicated by dysfunctional institutions of good governance.
While running an autonomous region as well as independent South Sudan, Kiir had been above board to be advised by his principal deputy in both party and the government, Dr. Machar. Other eminent South Sudanese offered their pieces of advice to Kiir on how to best to run the country to no avail.
He either used to pretend to have taken heed of all these advices without putting them into action. Or his delusion has been that he is the elected President with the free hand to rule the country as he so wishes. With the end of his term, all these defense mechanisms should have been over and country returned to its owners, all South Sudanese, in order to debate its future.
In pursuant, Machar should as well own up from personally pushing for what are deemed to be public demands, now that Kiir from whom he has been trying to wrestle peoples’ power is no more a leader.
IGAD and its partner Troika should as well stop forth with from running this scam of viewing South Sudan as Nuer – Dinka’s entity whose spoils should be divided between two ethnic groups solidly standing behind the two leaders.
What many expect of IGAD and TROIKA is one of the followings: to re-instate the past peace formula of President and Prime Minister on equally shared power. If it is not the case, UN should instead take over South Sudan for five years until required reforms are all carried through. Or tell Kiir to vacate for a new leader, presumed to be none Dinka, Nuer and Shiluk now the apparent contesters for country’s leadership, for a consensus leader from either the Church or an eminent person from minority ethnic group as the transitional and transformative leader tasked with steering the country through required reforms till the UN’s supervised and monitored elections.
Meanwhile Kiir and Machar to go to The Hague where they will answer legal cases against each other and people of South Sudan. Whoever comes out clean shall contest in the next Presidential elections with other interested contenders except the yet to be slated transitional leader.
Reason being, one of the two having an edge over the other in power arrangements or all remaining at the top during transition, there shall be friction with each trying to influence the direction of required reforms, ending with yet another more disastrous conflict than IGAD and TROIKA are trying to resolve now.
Without considering this formula IGAD and TRIOKA could be prolonging the crisis and continuous suffering of South Sudanese. Why? They are imposing Kiir on the country, leave alone Greater Bhar El Ghazal and Equatoria for a few more years. The same applies in the case of Machar on people of Greater Upper Nile.
Again, their current peace plan is the way of belittling a wider national agenda to a narrower ethnic one. With the isolation of Dr. Riek Machar and his Upper Nile constituency from main stream politics, while it gives unfair advantage to Kiir or whoever will be his successor in the next Presidential elections after the end of transition.
This is not without saying the peace plan encourages rebellions in other regions by those who will feel left out from proposed political dispensations. Should Machar and his Upper Nile constituency, especially the Nuer, fail to win Presidency by default, the current reforms agenda shall translate into secessionist quest of declaring Greater Upper Nile region as new independent state from the rest, a Nigerian Biafra in the making. Greater Equatoria too, will echo the same separatist sentiments than join with Greater Bhar el Ghazal against secessionist Upper Nile. This view is based on concrete evidences than far-fetched notions. For Kiir, like Ivory coast’s former President, Laurence Mbago, has perfected the fine art of Presidential term’s extensions.
In 2010 he cruised through bungled mid-term presidential elections. A day before independence declaration on 9th July, 2011, he cajoled parliament into extending his term to 2015. Fearing a likely defeat in 2015 elections, he created 2013’s violence that made it unconducive to hold an election as scheduled. The current peace’s proposal giving him three more years in office is what he exactly wanted when he instigated the same 2013’s ethnic violence. And there is no guarantee the next elections won’t go according to his usual unorthodox plans of continuous presidential terms’ extension.
Simply because IGAD –TROIKA handing him two regions 100% while he shares Upper Nile with Machar is the hidden strategy already meant to help Kiir regain the lost ground, the Upper Nile region. That will be in dividing Machar’s loyalists through either political manipulations or financial bribes and eventually kicking him out of the region politically or military.
Since Kiir, according to current peace plan, has indirectly regained his imperial presidency in appointing to and relieving from public offices Machar and his people top down. With three individuals nominated to a single position by Machar for Kiir to appoint one, is enough to stir series of lobby for positions and drive a wedge between Machar and those appointed or left out.
Without federalism being automatically implemented during transition, Kiir shall still have control of country’s oil riches in Greater Upper Nile to continue influencing the situation in his own direction. The same grip and manipulation will be replicated in two other regions since security arrangement gives him full control of all security forces there, which is enough to intimidate electorate against voting for his rivals, Machar and the rest.
In re-uniting and professionalizing the two armies into one regular national force, Machar is at a disadvantage since bulk of his armed loyalists are illiterate Nuers who will be demobilized to civilian life while Kiir since 2005 has been sending his Dinka’s soldiers for language courses and routine military trainings. The latter no doubt will be in control of the army against the former and dictate through military might and means how should remain in power.
In constitution – making, Kiir will put a simple majority clause to pass the constitution in referendum and in parliament he knows he has the majority of MPs according to current peace plan. This will include elections being run by local National Elections commission he controls supervised by the international community. Every wise person knows international observers always don’t have enough presence on the ground during referenda and elections and fear damaging their credibility by declaring such processes as unfair as well as not free.
Using all the above numerated advantages, Kiir will win while Machar and others trying to cry foul will be fought by international peace keeping force on Kiir’s behalf.
All these ill game plans make Kiir a serial war criminal locally and internationally. While Machar getting clawed back always to the system he leaves since the time of Garang paints him a political weakling and irredeemable failure locally and internationally.
For it all shows he is only capable of reforming his rivals and systems of governance against himself, making him to be used temporarily and dished eventually after a job well done. Machar by always returning to SPLM/A he either storms out voluntarily or chased out forcefully also confirms the long held belief of Dinka political elites and SPLM/A that they are indeed invincibly irreplaceable.
Such notion of mystery or sheer invincibility as created by internal weakness, by either Machar or his camp since 1991, shall live to demoralize the Nuer and other potential reformists forever from raising a finger against any persistent wrongs in the country in future.
Deng Vanang is the Journalist and author. He can be reached at dvanang@yahoo.com
4 comments
Deng Vanang, I agree with you on most topic except the giving UN power to rule south Sudan. UN is a combination of many nations with difference interests , giving them power to be in charge will create many problems for south sudanese. They will support power hunger individual who have no interest of people of south Sudan in heart , like Riek Machar, Kiir mayardit ,Lam Akol and many others. The solution is to support peace that exclude Kiir Mayardit as president and remove Riek machar and bring them to justice inside south sudan to face their crime against humanity for using people and south sudan’s wealth for their own benefit. This can be achievement if people stop supporting their own tribe in south sudan. The reason Riek Machar is still not facing justice for crime against humanity , is because Nuer tribe men support him even they no that Riek Machar have committed war crime many time in south sudan . Riek Machar used his knowledge and 6 billion US dollars that he got from south sudan oil during 1997 to 2013 from the deal he signed with Omar Bashir in 1997 to away with war crime. International say that south sudan oil should be signed only by a leader from south sudan not from North Sudan ,during civil war. So Riek Machar rebel from SPLA/SPLM and joint Omar Bashir to take advantage of that. Therefore, Riek Machar signed the deal of oil when he rebel against SPLA/SPLM and Riek Machar help Omar Bashir by letting Omar Bashir start oil drilling inside south sudan in 1997 ,that is why Omar Bashir bought so many weapons and become strong . And Riek Machar just have money going direct to his account from oil companies. That is why international community do not talk about him. because they are using his money for business. And Riek Machar died, they will take the money because it is in their banks abroad . That is the reason people of south sudan should not let Riek Machar be a leader again, no. UN should not be truth, they are there in south sudan to make money and take money back their countries. Look ,since 2005 UN in south sudan have being talking about topic that make tribes turn against other tribes so that south sudan will be like Somalia, Congo, and many other countries that UN are control now . What UN do in countries they in now, they make problems so that war is hard to end, and UN just take resources in those countries for free. UN pay few people who are greedy ,power hunger and selfish who do not care about their own people to destroyed countries . Because it is cheap for UN to do that .And it is more money for them. The money that UN pay to bad people like Riek machar , still go back UN . This is why , they people they paid ,kept the money in other countries that in over sea, i.e Sweden, Nether Land ,Norway , and many others . SO it is a lose to all Africa , because most of the bad leaders take the money from their countries and save it in others countries banks. And that money is not benefit the people where those leaders came from. That is why Nuer people should stop supporting Riek Machar. Riek Machar is enjoying his life in Ethiopia and his family are in Europe . Riek Machar do not stay in south sudan , he just talk from far away from the war . Because he is making his own money using Nuer people . There is no need for war , south sudan gain it’s independence in 2011. What south sudan need is discussion to make changes that people of south sudan need. And that will come from people from 64 tribes of south sudan , not IGAD or UN.
Matut Abraham, what the big lei! That is just a mere campaign against Dr.Riek. Riek had never order his solders intentionally to kill South Sudanese but Kiir did. Riek act only for self defend. Riek was free from 75 corrupted officials.
Madut Abraham,
Your mentality is similar to that of Mr. Kirr Mayardit and the cohort. South Sudan as we know it is under a rule of gun, not law. So please stop misleading people that the UN and IGAD should leave you alone. Do your really want Salva KIrr Mayardit to erase all the tribes of south Sudan who do not have guns? Let me remind you that the only solution to South Sudan crises is for Salva to quit politics or kiss good bye to South Sudan as a country! Sooner or later, the three regions will go their separate ways. After all, the Dinka have proven beyond reasonable doubt that KOKORA was justified and is still relevant today! The bitter truth is that it is impossible to share a country or space with dinka because of their barbaric ways- killings, looting, corruption, stealing, etc.
Lokuron you should be shame of yourself as a man and more specifically as S.Sudanese who has the mentality of UN taking over your own country of birth. what were you born for fool……….? to eat kisira? no i don’t think so. can you as an individual come out of your tinny cocoon and lead the S.Sudanese through the world wide compaigh for peace instead of preaching divisive idiologies. Let me assure you that our Country will never be run by the BLOOD UN or the Educated illiterate riek will never rule S.Sudan, I dare you!