Decoding Hostile Political Intrigues and Motives Callously Hidden behind Kiir’s Recently Declared 28 States

By Deng Vanang,

Oct 11, 2015(Nyamilepedia) — Despite the recently signed peace deal, war business still goes on as usual unperturbed with claims and counter claims by both sides on gross violations of the two year – old devastating conflict. But the marked violation considered as too precarious to the peace process so far, is the recent declaration of more additional 18 new states that makes the total number of states to shoot up to a staggering 28.

President Kiir’s declaration came long after he turned down the First Vice President designate, Dr. Machar’s proposed 21 states based on the 21 district of the former Anglo-Egyptian Sudan with clearer geo-political boundaries as stood on Fist January, 1956 when the old Sudan attained her independence.

Mr. Kiir’s refusal was that federalism, which could be the basis of the introduction of any new states, ought to be first enshrined in the yet to be drafted national constitution during transitional period. Then following a nationwide referendum, if accepted by majority section of South Sudanese society, could be tabled before the national legislative assembly for endorsement to form an integral part of new system of governance.

It is such intransigent position behind which Igad-plus peace mediators stood and convinced Machar to bid his time until that particular period arrives as proposed by Kiir and his SPLM/A wing.

Surprisingly, less than 40 days later after peace deal was initialed and before two months of the three months pre-interim period when transitional government of national unity could be inaugurated, Kiir made about turn and unilaterally introduced his own version of federalism with expanded number of states he vehemently stood opposed ever since the new country’s declared independence back on 9^th, July 2011.

This turn of event is not new but reminiscent of what Dr. John Garang did to the same Machar during the liberation struggle.

At its inaugural Chukudum convention in 1994, SPLM/A Mainstream of which Kiir was a prominent member turned around to copy and paste self-determination it bitter opposed when Machar in his Nasir declaration proposed in 1991 to be the principal objective of the liberation struggle against the rival north.

Garang opposed to join Machar in his Khartoum Peace Agreement he signed in April, 1996 based on self-determination that could lead to a referendum four years later on whether South Sudan would become an independent state or opt to remain part of the larger Sudan on new basis of shared power and resources between north and south.

Instead, the egocentric Garang wanted peace with the same terms and conditions but under himself as shown in August, 2002 when his deputy Kiir signed Machakos protocol that culminated in Comprehensive Peace Agreement, CPA on January 9^th 2005 with government of Sudan while Machar fully rallied behind him.

In 2010 elections Kiir opted instead to vie for Southern Sudan autonomous presidency not only meant for Machar as dictated by SPLM’s leadership hierarchy but both he and Garang previously dismissed as too demeaning for marginalized majority black Africans in relation with minority Afro-Arabs in wider Sudan’s power politics.

All these episodes have made Machar and in particular the Nuer ever since the time of Both Diu, the dreamer dreaming dreams Dinka and in particular Garang and Kiir stole and eventually actualized into tangible national goals because they always controlled extra -larger human and material resources. With him being a like the song’s composer unknown to the audience the singers sing to get all their huge money, name and credit after they pay him a meager fee.

Kiir’s recent move, however, came in the wake of continuous regional and international diplomatic engagements with foreign countries on serious issues that could have been dealt with by incoming transitional government to commence in December this year and which shall likely prove detrimental to the peace process in the long run.

Besides, fact also remains he couldn’t do so unilaterally by now without consulting with the parties to the agreement since the time he could have issued such Presidential decrees as elected President had elapsed on the day he signed the Compromise Peace Agreement, CPA. Not to mention his blatant abrogation of the interim constitution which stipulates it is only the prerogative of Council of States to either increase or reduce the number of states.

These stated legal bottlenecks notwithstanding, President Kiir willfully went against the grain to score some crucial points before agreement takes hold and which he feared shall definitely block him from attaining such gains as he so wishes should he try to do the opposite later, pursued not in the spirit of national reconciliation and neither economic viability of the numerously promulgated mini-states.

Mr. Kiir, however, made good his declaration to distort peace agreement he previously scorned as neither Bible nor Quran in addition to his long list of reservations he cited with the hope of renegotiating the agreement in his own terms.

In pursuit of such pervasive interests, as a proverbial cat he is, Mr. Kiir is in point blank telling his main opponent, Mr. Machar he {Kiir} has nine lives to content with, far from being pronounced dead politically. These nine lives can be chronologically categorized as diversionary political intrigues and motives as illustrated below.

1 – In Peace violation which diametrically altered the power sharing structures as stipulated in the just concluded agreement, he wants to provoke Machar into going berserk so that both of whom could be seen as anti-peace for any foreseeable punishment by Igad-Plus and wider international community.

Or in worse case, current peace agreement could be declared as null and void in order to get an opportunity of diplomatically and militarily repositioning himself into stronger position.

2- Kiir is hell-bent on causing crisis in order to create an avenue for discussion in which he would easily find an alibi to renegotiate peace where he will be able to table his previously cited reservations. With the hidden motive of setting up Machar against his core constituency in case he {Machar} accepts the deal for renegotiation. The compromise shall further instead make him look weak in the eyes of his supporters and further strengthen his renegade army Generals and politicians’ claim that he is indeed a sellout to the Nuer’s cause.

3 – Once the renegotiation of the peace process is assuredly secured, that will provide fertile ground for delaying tactics to test the alleged Russian weapons which he thinks could help him eliminate rebels or regain vital territories which will sharply reduce rebels’ current power quotas in the oil rich Upper Nile region.

4 – As the self-style guarantor of Dinka’s vested interests Kiir is declaring 28 states not in love for federalism and South Sudanese public but as the means to curve out Dinka sections in Upper Nile region from what he believes will be Nuer’s future domination that shall never be shaken off for a long time to come given the fact that he is not sure of winning the next Presidential elections if free and fair.

5 – The same number four strategy is further aimed at isolating the Nuer and Shiluk as troublesome in the eyes of other South Sudanese ethnic groups by giving them their only inhabited states from the rest which he hopes will win him the next do or die post- transition’s Presidential elections.

6 – Another trick up his long sleeves is the desperate preservation of Dinka’s economic gains through continuous control of larger oilfields he believes belongs to the Dinka sections of Upper Nile region and from which Dinka of Bhar el Ghazal will continue to benefit through employment and provision of services behind the back of other ethnic groups.

7 –He is also scheming to drive wedge between Machar and the electorate in the upcoming post – transition’s Presidential elections if Machar refuses to embrace his convoluted version of states and federalism.

8 – Kiir by introducing federalism and states himself he previously objected as Machar’s proposal is trying to steal credit he believes will in the long term bountifully pay for him in any future political dispensations.

9 – His undying and long lasting quest is trying to preserve Dinka’s continuous political and economic dominance via power sharing representation in number of MPs and Cabinet Ministers in the centre and federal budgetary allocations to the states given that 62 ethnic groups have a combined 11 with Dinka having 12 as against 5 of Nuer out of a total of 28 states.

In conclusion

President Kiir’s cat and mouse game as he tries to keep himself afloat against the successive tides of stormy political current tell more about his egoistic self than any one else can.

For once, his ill-motives boomeranged first on him before hitting his intended target, Machar and Lam Akol. Since the policy of declaring 28 states has pitted his political allies in the case of new states’ borders. One example among many more to come is the recent clash between Dinka Rweng and Bul Nuer reportedly said to have claimed 19 lives so far. That is besides annexing Raja county of Western Bhar El Ghazal State to a section of Dinka from Warrap to become Lol State the latter will political and economically dominate in future.

Contrary to his abiding love for his allies he is known, Kiir has now betrayed and isolated his Nuer and Shiluk allies from their respective communities as he equally endangered the bright future of Dinka youth in the community of South Sudan. And only God knows whether Kiir has not yet fed up with Him.

Kiir has also shown himself in public eyes quite adversely he is the trouble of South Sudan contrary to what he always thinks his political opponents are the cause responsible for this new country’s myriad of ills. Which range from rampant constitutional infringements and political anarchy to state’s sanctioned negative ethnicity and endemic corruption.

As much as he demonstrated he is a puppet President who never rules but Dinka elders and Dr. Riek Machar who when dismissed as Vice President, government and country went down the drain of lawlessness and economic collapse.

He as well made it abundantly crystal clear to all and sundry that he is ideologically bankrupt by stealing ideas from his opponents with which to politically subsist.

Deng Vanang is Journalist and author to be reached at:dvanang@gmail.com