By Isaac K. Gang, PhD
March 27, 2022 — The Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCiSS) is the second peace agreement signed within the last 7 years to stop two civil wars in a country of only 10 years young. This fact alone is sufficient to conclude that the country cannot afford another peace agreement as this would imply, we have successfully squander, yet another opportunity to get it right.
That would essentially mean we have started a brand-new war. This has to be it, you would think. No, we are not getting it right, and yes, a new war has, indeed, been declared and started – thanks to the continuous, unprovoked attacks and occupation of SPLA (IO) Cantonment sites and Training Centers of Jiokow, Turu, Pieri, Morota, Namatina, Wau County, Mirmir, and many others, by SSPDF. And, as I write this, the SSPDF is currently fighting in and planning to attack more SPLA(IO)-controlled areas across the country.
In the words of South Sudan Peoples’ Defense Forces (SSPDF) Army Spokesman, “SSPDF is officially at war with SPLA (IO).” This statement and related facts make sounding additional alarm redundant. With the war in earnest and key structures – like the armies, foreign missions, wild life, fire brigades, etc., not having been unified, the prospect of successful unification, particularly of the various armed forces, diminishes by the day.
To make matters worse, the President just decreed the Unified Force Command structure giving SPLM/A(IO) 2 positions in both National Army and Police. For context, the agreement calls for a 50-50 ratio between the Incumbent Transitional Government National Unity (ITGONU) on one hand, and the SPLM/A (IO) and other oppositions, on the other.
The SPLM/A(IO) leadership has officially rejected this decree, condemned the attacks and occupation, and it has released a proposal for recommitting to permanent ceasefire and bilaterally resolving the command-structure deadlock.
To say that these are troubling signs and symptoms would be an understatement as they clearly remind us of the 2016 environment leading to the collapse of ARCiSS, version 1.0. Instead, we need to call them what they are – signs and symptom of an imminent return to full-scale war.
The SPLM/A(IO) military and political leadership has been patiently waiting with a notion that the guarantors and other stakeholders – like the US and Troika, would reign over those responsible for these violations and delays while avoiding both sides-ism, for the culprit is and has always been indisputable. Nothing was done.
Now, that lack of action has emboldened our peace partner and led to the uptake in attacks and occupation of IO cantonment sites and training centers. These attacks have increased in volume, intensity and violent. These daylight, flagrant, and indisputable violations are clear indications that the peace is not only on the verge of collapse, but its abrogation is imminent. The result? Another full-scale war.
To this end, the US, in conjunction with the region and its troika partners, must act now to help save the peace agreement – or what is left of it, and South Sudan. This time around, it will be impossible for anyone to say that they were caught off guard. The writings are visibly on the wall!
Signed,
Dr. Isaac K. Gang, PhD
Representative, SPLM/A (IO) US Mission
Email: isaac@isaacgang.com
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/SplmIoRepUSA/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/SPLM_IO_Rep_USA
cc: US State Department, Troika, China, IGADD, RJMEC
