By Matiop Aguek Anyang,
Aug 25, 2021 — Civil action, commonly known as Civil disorder, Civil disturbance, Civil unrest or social unrest is an activity arising from a mass act of Civil disobedience such as demonstrations, riots, strikes or ignoring laws in which the participants become hostile towards the Authority that govern them.
Nearly a decade ago, Civil unrest that became commonly known as Arab Spring started in North Africa, Tunisia in 2010s. it rapidly became a series of government protests. Uprisings and armed rebellions that eventually spread across much of the Arab World.
The Tunisian unrest or Revolt also called the Jasmine Revolution took twenty-eight days to oust the government of longtime serving President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali from power. As a result, similar unrests were quickly spread to five other countries such as Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Syria, and Bahrain.
For one reason or another, not all these protests successfully achieved the intended results. Some have ended up in consequent deterioration of lives of citizens where the protests took place. This can be evidenced in countries like Syria, Libya, just to mention a few.
The peoples `Coalition for Civil Action that is planned for 30th August 2021, against the President Salva Kiir Mayardit and his Deputy Dr. Riek Machar Teny, is categorically resulting from full dissatisfaction of how the affairs of a country are being ran since South Sudan broke out from Sudan on 9th July 2011, and to make it worse from 2013 to date.
Why Civil Unrest in South Sudan?
When South Sudan gained its independence from Sudan in 2011, there was high expectation for South Sudanese, carried on from the Vision of Late Dr. John Garang De Mabior. This however, didn’t go as such, the affairs and vision of the country got reduced to a mere power wrangling within the Revolutionary Party, the SPLM. Pitting President Salva Kiir Mayardit and his then and now Deputy Dr. Riek Mahcar Teny. This ultimately resulted into South Sudan’s Civil war of 2013 that the region and the whole World is trying to end.
Many reasons put forward by the Peoples’ Coalition for Civil Action as basis for the planned demonstration set for 30th August 2021, are exactly part of the situations South Sudan finds itself in. Majority of South Sudanese in and outside will agree that the country is undergoing a series of Political, Social, and economic stagnation.
What went wrong in South Sudan?
The correct answer rests entirely on the Leadership of President Salva Kiir Mayardit, then and now Deputy President Dr. Riek Machar Teny. Just about any country in the globe, the country’s future depends on Political Nature be it economy, social fabrics just to mention a few.
Will Civil Unrest succeed in South Sudan or not?
While civil unrest succeeded in ousting some stagnated governments in Africa and indeed, the whole world, it may not at a certain point, finds its ways the same in South Sudan. This is because of the following.
- Social Fabrics in South Sudanese Society
Having fallen victim of political polarization, it is very easy to note that South Sudan as a nation, finds itself along Ethnic lines. This however, gives no single incentive for a coordinated action that may successfully oust the government of President Salva Kiir and Deputy Dr. Riek Machar Teny.
- The Public Institutions
Secondly, the Public Institutions like the Police, Army or SSPDF, the National Security just for examples, are too polarized along Ethnic and Political lines. This will make them ill prepared to handle any pressure as a result of President Salva Kiir Mayardit and his Deputy Dr. Riek Machar Teny leaving power involuntary through civil unrest.
- The question of who to take over power?
Just as we are witnessing the various factions of rebellions in South Sudan, the answer to the question of Who will take over power? brings along Instability itself. This is because the individual quests for Power in South Sudan, outweigh the quests for a better future of South Sudan as a country.
As I mentioned various rebel factions in South Sudan, the emergencies of these various rebellions, disjointed and uncoordinated under one leadership with one VISION, is a typical example that the country lacks what it intends to be unitedly.
How to get out of this mess?
The answer to the question of how does South Sudan get out of this mess?, needs clear analyses and studies. I will categorically divide these analyses into three phases.
- Phase One (Option One)
Under phase one (Option One), it entirely rests on President Salva Kiir Mayardit and Deputy Dr. Riek Machar Teny to engage in an all out honest and full implementation of the Revitalized Peace agreement in South Sudan. This will involve putting aside their individual political interests for the benefits of South Sudanese Society. In doing so, the country will find peace and the process of re-uniting polarized societies along ethnic and Political lines can begin to make shapes.
- Phase One (Option Two)
Secondly, if President Salva Kiir Mayardit and Deputy Dr. Riek Machar Teny find it difficult to work together, set aside their Political Interests, and move the country out of their planted mess, they can revert to phase One (Option Two)
Phase One (Option Two) will be for both the President and his Deputy to Voluntary surrender the power back to the People. If the two do this by leaving Power Voluntary, it will ease pressure on both sides of Political divides where the two find their roots hence giving a chance for less risky mode of power transition.
How, why, and when to do this, is an answer to the question of “ how many South Sudanese still believe that the two (President Salva Kiir Kiir Mayardit and Deputy Riek Machar Teny) still have any plan in stock for the future of South Sudan?”
- Phase Two (Option One)
In this phase, the PeoplesCoalition for Civil Action has to study clearly the Social fabrics and Public Institutions of South Sudanese Society. This is because any “less risky success” in ousting both President Salva Kiir Mayardit and Deputy Dr. Riek Machar Teny depends on the Two.</span> Coalition for Civil Action will be worth taking.
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<li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><b>Phase Two (Option Two</b><span style="font-weight: 400;">)</span></li>
</ol>
<span style="font-weight: 400;">If the study reveals that South Sudan has good societal relations, ( this means that at least 80% of the 64 tribes can stand united in quest for a change ), strong and well prepared Public Institutions that will support such an involuntary change, the people's
If the study reveals poor and polarized societal relations, Weak and ill prepared Public Institutions to maintain law and order amidst Political crisis, the People’s Coalition for Civil Action are worth advising in forgoing the planned 30th, August 2021 unrest.
- Phase Three
As a result of poor and polarized Societal Relations, Weak and ill prepared Public Institutions, the people of South Sudan may consider enduring the Leadership of President Salva Kiir Mayardit and Dr. Riek Machar Teny until the elections time to choose their own future.
Recommendation
I strongly recommend the People’s Coalition for Civil Action, the South Sudanese people to study themselves fully, and the Public Institutions, for these are the catalysts for less risky change of governments around the world.
Secondly, I also recommend the government to study the reasons why people consider risking civil unrest against their governments, read relevant literature that has already happened in other countries and urgently “Develop a National Political and Economic Master Plan for South Sudan”.
Conclusion
Civil disobedience is always risky to Countries with Polarized Societal Fabrics, Weak Public Institutions, and limited Policy space.
The Author is a graduate student of Economic Development and Policy Analysis, University of Juba. He is reachable at Matiop.aguek@gmail.com
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