Opinion: Who Is To Be Blamed For The SPLM-IO’s Unfortunate Fragmentation?

By Mak Banguot Gok (Makjohnson),

Aug 05, 2021 — Following the Generals ‘last resort to what some people thought as an untimely flaw with Machar, it became somewhat ascendancy all the way through scores of South Sudanese social media outlets. Many have written on varieties of probabilities that they thought may have only suited their instantaneous basic political interests. Many have actually ended up beating bushes whence writing in this regard. Well-known SPLM/A-IO ‘foes have found a new frontline and weak spot to exploit. More importantly, a good number of the media platforms ‘commentaries are extraneous simply because, majority of them are uttering their own wishes and desires as to how they hear of the SPLM-IO movement being caught in an uncalled for divisions among the top leaders. Those who love to witness the movement politically and militarily fading are the ones actually writing nonessential posts.  

All in all, there are indeed enduring political uncertainties within the revolutionary movement, which no one can deny. And, a similar struggle is always that normally occurring within every political system. That depends on whether or not such a politically tempted leadership is proficient enough to use its internal norms in resolving an abnormality. Meanwhile, the friction between the SPLM/A-IO military leadership that remained in bushes and its political wing that have been relocated to Juba in aploy of the peace agreement is not new. It has been on for quite some weeks if not months that we may have all learned of the tension. We were all familiar with the strain but, only that, many of us expected sorts of conciliation between the leaders. 

Meanwhile, we thought of the abrasion that it may have been set on by the SPLM/A-IO leadership itself without difficulties. And, indeed a solution was on the table, and only that, some destructive forces don’t want to realize their shortsighted thoughtfulness. Unfortunately, owing to the breakdown of SPLM-IO leadership’s effective respond to the mix-up within its structure, we been astounded of the unexpected declaration by the Generals insisting on completely altering Machar’s position in what many sees as somehow impossible, but with massive blow on both peace and Machar’s time-consumed projected political finding of the middle ground with those of Salva Kiir in Juba.

Now that, a pronouncement has been made by the movement’s military leadership at its subcategory as per what is best known as the “Kitgwang Declaration). Nevertheless, what are people (specially SPLM-IO enthusiasts) needs to debates are:

What is the affirmation by the Generals predestined to the entire SPLM-IO revolutionary objective?

Why is the choice by the movement’s military leadership being reached at this particular time? 

What are the unwanted results we expected to happen within the movement’s supporters due to the standoffs?

Who among the SPLM-IO leaders has to be blamed for the mix-up within the SPLM-IO movement?

And so, many other sorts of objective remedies and means to avert a total fragmentation of the movement are the priorities to write about. The rejoinders so far as to whether the alteration is first-rate or appalling that has been heartrending around, the correct answer depends on how roughly and smoothly the following actions will entail.

The Peace Agreement still recognizes Dr. Machar as the principal partner with SalvaKiir despite Generals ‘imperfections. This is politically giving an upper hand to Machar who will continue defying the Generals in the mercy of peace and its guarantors. This may work for sometimes in favor of the controversially ousted chairman. However, the possibility of returning the country to a bloody hostility will fetch  a gigantic blow not only on  the position of FVP held by Machar in the name of R-ARCSS, but also, and above all, the entire peace agreement will be in jeopardy. 

Resumption or not of the military hostilities in South Sudan lay the answer to the question as to “whether the generals in this context are capable of restarting military operations in either of the state or not” so that, the system in Juba forces to abandon Machar and turn its face to issue of the generals. Military operation is one of the only options to speed up the Generals ‘agitating for recognition.

When we look into the causes of the friction on Security Arrangements and the present political state of affairs in Juba; on internal Administrative and leadership issues within the movement; on the R-ARCSS implementation; and so forth, that will depends on how conservative and/or flexible you are in taking a theoretical side. Many of the SPLM-IO supporters thought of the dissatisfaction from the generals and lack of an objective political feedback from Machar as attributed to the SPLM-IO movement being caught in a lousy systemic setting. Thus!  That has been the innermost apprehension of many even before the recent incident.

Many are worrying of what might follow when rubbing hinted to the extent that it likely may cause bloodshed amongst the Nuer people in particular. This is a conventional concern that only nature is to determine. There are many reasons to believe fighting within the divided SPLA-IO forces is inevitable the same as the prevailing of many possibilities to avoid bloodshed.   

The question as to “who is realizing peace agreement being unadulterated and those who don’t see any reason to deem the business in Juba with alleged reason of R-TGoNU will remain the determining factor in projecting loyalty between Machar and Gatwech. I mean those who are seeing any reason to believe that a peace agreement is providing them their needs will support Machar, whilst the majority who don’t enjoy the dividends of the peace agreement will be siding with Generals in seeking for means to express their grievance. That depends on the ratio between those enjoying it and those with nothing even after the peace has been signed. 

In case the Generals utilizes these unsolved grievances within the movement’s military rank and files by using military means, surely, they will win the support of the mainstream of the movement which is more exhausted…….

TO BE CONTINUED………

The author is a concerned citizen who can be reached through email at johnsonmak61@gmail.com

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