By Hon. Atem Garang DeKuek,
Juba, South Sudan,
Sep 26, 2021 — For a popular uprising to succeed in South Sudan, like the three Sudanese historic uprisings against (1) Military Dictatorial Rule of Abbuod in 1964, (2) Military Despotism of Nimeiri 1985, and (3) Militant Religious Rule of Al Bashir 2019, or say (4) the Arab Spring, the following fundamental conditions have to be seriously underlined before wishing to change the present government in South Sudan:
Some sociological fundamentals the Sudanese society possessed made it possible for the people to overthrow the dictatorial governments without the use of guns or violence. It seems to me most of such sociological fundamentals and factors are lacking in South Sudan.
Frist: The level of tribalism in Sudanese society is minimal due to religious sectarianism, political ideologies, and professional associations. Secondly: a large number of the population is politically conscious and highly aware of its regional connections and of the impact of their opinions on how their country should be governed.
Thirdly: the middle class (the elites) is big and constitutes the majority of the urbanized centers in Sudan. This class is very important and is instrumental in political life and any political change. Members of this class are contemporary thinkers, intellectuals, ideologues, etc. The majority of this class own estates, and properties, so it does not opt or tend for any violence that may invite war and destruction! Members of this class, are mostly detribalized. They are organized and are members of professional associations.
Fourthly: the working force (class) in public and private sectors is huge and is highly conscious of its rights regarding employment, pay, work environment/conditions, pension, social services benefits to their families, political rights, etc. This class is solidly organized around their professional associations, not worshippers of tribal unions. This class is also, somehow, ideologized. This class is the bulldozer mobilized and used by the middle class (the elites) and the political parties to crash and bring down the rule of dictators in Sudan. This class looks at social stratification as mobile and ascendable, so it works to join the middle class through financial savings or investment.
Fifthly: the political parties are either sectarianists or ideologically oriented and are none tribally based (though geographically influenced). These political entities are the heart, center, and always the initiators of political changes in Sudan. They spearhead the uprising in a covert approach, using the other two classes to pull down through uprising any unwanted government.
Can we try sociologically to look into our own society and find social factors that could make an uprising possible in South Sudan without these fundamental elements in the Sudanese experience? Is it possible to move or mobilize the masses of our people in the absence of such sociological fundamentals as in Sudan? We are a tragic, tribalized society. How can we be detribalized? In the future, we can discuss that.
Two of the Sudanese uprisings were achieved in an era that internetwork was unknown. They succeeded because people were ideologically organized and politically sensitized in meetings and not through social media and not because of hatred of individuals or dislike of groups of people.
Mobilizing people for mass political action is a process and long-term work, that needs thinkers, organizers, mobilizers and propagators, and even financiers, etc. It is not just a mere formation of a new forum in social media and call for mass action and wishing to bring down a government formed by Gun worshippers.
I think a lot of emotions are allowed to drive our thinking in South Sudan when trying to figure out how we can come out from this precarious situation our country and our people are in.
Atem Garang Deng Dekuek is currently an MP at the National Legislative Assembly of South Sudan, formerly Deputy speaker in Khartoum on SPLM ticket after the CPA era, and later clerk of the national assembly in Juba, South Sudan before his resignation.
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