“South Sudan`s Economy, the case of young Economists, (Dr. Bak Barnaba and Dr. Alic Garang), Hunters sent to the hunting fields without tools and means, will always come back without meat”.
By Matiop A. Anyang,
Feb 24, 2024(Nyamilepedia) — Unlike other economies around the globe, South Sudan`s approaches are unique in its all dimensions (medications without diagnosis). Many still wonder why the best taught Economists, young and energetic, and from the most reputable institutions, seem to have no impact on South Sudan’s economic outlook. A lot of questions are raised, many suggestions put forward and even presidential decrees are awaited every evening that passes to see who comes next to add his / her presence in the two economic dockets and help out South Sudanese from the hard and rocks.
While citizens and especially the civil servants wait for more than six months to be paid a single monthly salary, the inflation rates keep on reaching a no man` s ladder. The value of South Sudanese Pounds, keep on depreciating daily against the United States Dollars. This situation leaves many to be worried amongst the citizens of what tomorrow would be. Minister Hon. Bak Barnaba, admitted unsustainable 400% salary increment approved in the 2023/2024 fiscal year budget. (Government has NO money). Why? Houthi rebels in Yemen and delays at the red sea for crude oil cargos and insufficient collections by South Sudan Revenue Authority. These explanations suggest that Hon. Bak Barnaba knows the truth but can’t go Agakly. (Oil is pre-sold until 2027).
However, from the look of things, whether an Economist, graduated from the God`s taught heaven universities, if there are, is decreed into one of these dockets under the same conditions, South Sudan`s economic solutions won’t find its shortcut to a life breathing space. This is because ninety percent (90%) solutions to the South Sudan economic problems lie outside the two dockets (Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning as well as Bank of South Sudan).
While there are several debates going on in various social media platforms, it is to be noted that since independence, South Sudan has had about fourteen (14) ministers of Finance and Economic Planning as well as nine (9) governors of the Bank of South Sudan. Economic situation keeps on deteriorating each day, week, month and year passing. Why? What is the problem? Why is it that none of these officials brought / is bringing solutions to these problems the Country faces? As I said before, 90% solutions to these economic problems lie outside the two economic dockets. Take a minute and look at the most dangers of all, but which our politicians keep on lending NO an eye and hear while using it as a play game.
INSECURITY (though other factors are also shocking).
Whether perpetuated by who, by what forms, and at what scale? Only two states in South Sudan by God`s grace, out of ten states and three Administrative Areas are currently stable, though not at 100%. Lakes and Northern Bhar EL Ghazzal states respectively. If that is correct, what does this mean for South Sudan’s Economy? According to Vice president Dr. James Wani Igga, a year not captured. “Civilians in South Sudan are more armed than the army”. What does this mean for stability for South Sudan? Currently, communal conflicts countrywide are no longer a story to tell but a reality to witness. What does this mean in an economy such as this? Images of these are scary and devastating. What does this tell a foreign investor about the future of his / her investment, in a situation like this? What does it mean for farming to average men and women in the countryside?
I will leave the issue of Public Financial Management and Accountability for now and focus more on how these prevailing security threats, undermining our path to economic recovery now and in the future, once kept unaddressed. Generally, it`s to be noted that an Economy that produces none, distributes none, but consumes, brings nothing but suffering. Our villages for agriculture are barracks for conflicts and thus becoming graveyards for the deaths.
Now, because of all these, South Sudan becomes a net importer, what does that mean? We are currently importing more than exporting. From maize flour, beans, cooking oil, salt, onion, medicines to many others. Just to mention the few necessities of life. By details, I may not reason it out correctly but data shows that 80% of what we eat comes abroad, 100% medicines for our treatment comes abroad, our clothing comes abroad and each and every modern house in major cities, one sleeps under, is roofed with iron sheets imported. All these come to South Sudan at the expense of United States Dollars sent outside South Sudan. Thousands of South Sudanese homes outside the country with thousands of students studying in foreign countries. The statistics of the hard currency, sent outside monthly for these realities, are shocking. If these are true, tell me, what amount of dollars will ever match this demand and supply for dollars in South Sudan? How will the efforts of the Bank of South Sudan be successful, in maintaining a strong local currency (value) amidst this unmatched demand and supply chain?
By conclusion, South Sudan has had fourteen (14) Finance and Economic Planning ministers, nine (9) Bank of South Sudan Governors since independence. None of these has anything to say as an achievement. Are all these officials incapable? NO. Minister Agak Achuil Lual seems to be most wanted by the general public according to the opinions seen for far simply because he publicly undressed the reality undercover with truth. (Oil being pre-sold up to 2027 in advance, Public Financial Management and Accountability). How, why and by who, remains sketchy. Not because he succeeded.
When Dr. Bak Barnaba got appointed as the new minister of finance and economic planning, hopes were high not only from the general public but also himself as a person who understood better the kinds of lives his fellow citizens in the country face. This could be witnessed by speeches he delivered several times during his welcoming to the ministry and other places. The same to Dr. Alic Garang. However, do we nowadays still hear the same voices? NO. Why? These Honorable members were still innocent. Never did they know, going to be more of soldiers sent to the frontline without guns.
Government needs to know that no other number of sackings and appointments in the two dockets (Finance and Economic Ministry, as well as Bank of South Sudan) will come with our economic solutions. The HOPES must be a political will from the top offices. The PRIOITY and FUTURE now lie beyond, perhaps embarking on the countrywide disarmament (bring TOTAL peace and stability, sound public financial management and accountability, REFORMS). Do the disarmament to get guns off hands from unauthorized persons (civilians). Use this strategy to make our villages safe once again for rural agriculture and other forms of productivity. Reform the security sector and give them a full mandate of civilians’ protection. Let there be an opportunity cost to make this happen. “Cut off your one eye if it brings HOPE to South Sudanese”
The views expressed here, are sole opinions of the writer and do not necessarily whatsoever relate to the institution he works.
The writer is an Economist, and can be reached at matiop.aguek@gmail.com
