By Deng Vanang,
Feb 13, 2022 — Will he succeed to refurbish his bartered legitimacy? Certainly no and here is why. The 2023 election in South Sudan as provided for in R-ARCISS as is the case in abrogated past peace deals is aimed at getting the country out of the gridlock of wrangling politicians over power.
It is supposed to be credible out of which a popular and undisputed leader will emerge, which will equally spell the end of a dragging eight years’ conflict.
Then, will the 2023 election from Kiir’s perspective live up to its billing?
Certainly no, since election calendar is proven time for Kiir among his peer dictators the worldover to bounce back to the stage they were once ideologically driven out by an onslaught of venomous band of human rights critics, negative media coverage, opposition politicians elbowing their way to the ruling sanctum and donors fatigued by state sanctioned corruption.
The election is thus more of a five-year- ritual for a dictator to retool than an hambinger to breath a fresh air into lopsided governance only works to oil the wit of the incumbents and provide an opportune time for them to renew broken promises of the past elections and refurbish their bartered legitimacy on the crest of a false new dawn.
The Trojan horse, that is the dictator’s choreographed election, is probably allowed to take place on three fertile political grounds favoring him.
Which could be the dictator has run out of tricks and space to postpone the election through deliberately orchestrated violence.
When the donors hing promises for more funds on conducting new elections for future inflow of monies.
Or the dictator is to head off ferrous rebel advances with what he calls popular mandate recently ill-acquired from fraudulent election results.
From a similar old and tested trend President Kiir took the cue the author, like other like minded observers, believes won’t succeed as political trajectory is too unfamiliar this time round to continue riding roughshod on visibly agitated tired donkeys, the South Sudanese masses.
With 15 – point- bottleneck obviously obstructing President Kiir’s long march back to the state house cum Juba one as described below:
∙ No feasible peace agreement that unites the opposing ruling classes around a singular objective.
∙ No unified security forces to protect opposition contestants in the campaigns and safeguard votes from fraud during the election.
∙ No enabling environment for reconciliation and forgiveness made possible among the divided civil population and rival factions to read from the same script.
∙ No countrywide disarmament to wrestle destabilizing guns from illegal and dangerous handlers.
∙ No constitution that sets a clearer, united vision for nation-building to pave the country’s departure from its messy past.
∙ No census declared by Kiir to determine the number and age group legally qualified to vote.
∙ The would be voters are unwilling and largely jerking a living in neighboring countries and fearing to return home and vote.
∙ Registration of would-be voters in a country still boiling and reeling in revenge killings, civilian and political violence is utterly impossible.
∙ Safety of election officials and monitors will surely be at risk of either targetted or crossfire of warring factions.
∙ Institutions manning the exercise are filled with and controlled by Kiir’s loyal appointees right from the electoral commission to political parties’ council and judiciary legally slated to certify the authenticity of an election outcome.
∙ There won’t be an atmosphere so conducive for political parties and candidates to hold National Delegates Conferences {NDCs} in Juba and register for the election. Instead, in a sheer political survival most of them will back the status quo of a single horse in the election called Salva Kiir Mayardit.
∙ The country is politically charged, regionally and ethnically polarized for so many political parties wishing to participate in the election to get 500 delegates in their NDCs from 7 out of the country’s 10 constituent states as demanded by current interim constitution {2011}.
∙ South Sudan elections are traditionally held in dry season since the independence of the Sudan in 1956 which exactly coincide with usually deadly Murle cattle rustling activities and subsequent reprisals from the victims that are more than enough to enfranchise whole of Jonglei and Upper Nile States’ voters from voting, effectively throwing the credibility of the election into jeopardy.
∙ The government has no money to pay its employees salaries worth less than 10 million US Dollars let alone funding multi-billion election and any donor to shift in to pay the bill shall be doing nothing short of sponsoring continuation of violence in the country for which it will be held squarely responsible.
∙ Election won’t be inclusive as required as many rebel groups shall by the time of conducting election be roaming the bushes surrounding capital Juba.
Deng Vanang is UDRM/A’s Deputy Chairman and member of SSOMA’s Leadership Council. He can be reached through email at dvanang@gmail.com.
