Tuesday, September 17, 2024 (Nyamilepedia) — This past Friday, September 13, 2024, South Sudanese leaders surprised the citizens and the whole international community that the Revitalized Peace Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS had been extended. Two years ago, the same South Sudanese leaders made similar announcement on Thursday August 4, 2022, that the country’s post-war transitional government would remain in power for two years. Today, the same dejavu repeat itself because President Salva Kiir is unwilling to implement the peace he signed with anybody. On Friday, he and his political adversaries announced R-ARCSS transition period and the election that can conclude process are delayed for two more years after failing to meet key provisions of a peace agreement. This fifth extension is telling us, the fate of South Sudan remains uncertain. This time around, nobody will make pinky promise or prognosticate (R-ARCSS will ever be implemented fully If Salva Kiir still the peace partner. Below, readers will ascertain many reasons why Salva Kiir is the sole obstacle to progress in South Sudan.
Initially, the process leading up to the signing of the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS) was not a smooth corridor. It involved significant pressure put on the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM-IG) for the reason that, Salva was claiming he was implementing 2015 peace agreement which he refused to signed on August 17, 2015 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia and signed it one week later on August 26, 2015 in Juba.
In 2018 Salva was forced to signed by two peace negotiators, former Sudan’s President Omar al-Bashir and Uganda’s President Yoweri Musevenim During negotiations, Both men possessed significant leverage over the main actors and used this to impose an agreement. Salva Kiir later saw it as a window of opportunity to lure in all oppositions and frustrate the implementation of the peace once oppositions are in Juba.
This extension for two more years and postponement of elections which were scheduled to take place in December 2024 this year to December 2026 is not the first time. Four extensions had already been agreed upon and still violated given Salva Kiir lack of political will to implement the deal entirely. Previous extensions are listed below.
Profoundly, (R-ARCSS) scheduled the government of national unity to be formed on May 12, 2019. The formation of the unity government was an initial step towards the more challenging reform process that will require steadfast, collegiate and transparent leadership to deliver on the legitimate expectations for peace in South Sudan. The agreement envisions a transitional period of eight-month pre-transitional period, followed by 36-month transitional period which will expire once national elections are conducted across the country.
However, the formation of the South Sudan government of national unity was postponed and extended for six months from 12 May to November 12, 2019. The extension was agreed by signatories to the deal during a meeting in Ethiopia, convened by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, which is tasked with mediating peace in South Sudan. The six-month extension was attributed mainly to financial constraints and lack of trust and inadequate support from international partners. The government pledged to provide US$100m in funding for the agreement, further to US$10m which it had previously committed. However, given its financial constraints, the government paid only $40 million toward implementation of the peace. The rest of the money were used to bride opposition groups.
According to the Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (an international monitoring body for the peace agreement), out of 59 tasks due to be implemented during the pre-transitional period, more than 50% were pending as of May 1st. The pending tasks, which includes pre-requisite security arrangements (particularly cantonment and unification of the army), are the most critical for the deal to hold.
In some respects, the extension was a positive move, as it means that the May 12th deadline can pass without it being claimed that the entire peace deal has failed, and it gives the parties more time to make progress on pending tasks.
On October 21, 2019, 15 United Nation ambassadors arrived in the capital Juba on Sunday to urge South Sudanese leaders to meet November 12, dateline. The Security Council delegation acknowledged that progress has been made with the ceasefire significantly improving the security situation.
, During their interaction with South Sudanese, they stated, key outstanding issues remain, which are having an impact on the progress of the peace process. These include decisions on States and their boundaries, as well as the reunification of security forces. Beside the United Nations delegation’s acknowledgement, SPLM/A-IO leader Dr. Riek Machar expressed concern about the failure to unify security forces. He added that his movement will not join the government until the outstanding issues are resolved. After the second dateline of November 12, has come to an end, the parties began to rival again with SPLM/A-IO still wanting another extension while the government wanted a transitional government of national unity to be formed. Following the disagreement, the parties had shuttled to Uganda to consult with Museveni and other IGAD leaders. The talks in Entebbe Uganda, noted that critical tasks were still not completed, including issues of security arrangement, governance and the integration of fighting forces. The parties agreed to extend the formation of the new government again for 100 days from November to February 12. The function had also given them fifty days for review if there is any progress between the parties. The period between the 100 days was critical, pressure had increased from the regional and international community, wanting South Sudan leaders to meet the deadline. SPLM/A-IO that favored the extension state, they are demanding extension for proper security arrangement and the determination of States and their boundaries. President Kiir said, “He has accepted the extension to avoid the risk of returning to war.” After the parties left Uganda, there was no change of attitudes. Machar had multiple times shuttled between Khartoum and Juba to iron out outstanding issues, yet no concrete solution.
On February 8, 2020, IGAD summoned South Sudan government and opposition leaders to converge in Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa during the 34th extraordinary summit of the IGAD Heads of State and Government under chairmanship of H.E. Dr. Abdalla Hamdok, the Prime Minister of the Republic of Sudan regarding the peace process in South Sudan.
The meeting was attended, among others, by Heads of State of Uganda, South Sudan, Somalia, and Minister for Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Djibouti, Cabinet Secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Kenya, and H.E. Hirut Zememe, State Minister of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia. IGAD member State leaders were also joined by AU leaders as the communique was not keen about further extension of the formation of the Revitalized Transitional Government of National Unity (R-TGoNU. From the day of the IGAD summit, only twelve days left before the end of 100 days which was scheduled to be formed on February 22, 2020.
The discussion was based on the number of States and their boundaries, which was a sticky issue in the South Sudanese peace process. The meeting agreed to revert to the former ten States. However, despite the relentless mediation efforts of the regional Special Envoys from IGAD and South Africa on the issue of the number of States and their boundaries, the mediation effort has hit a deadlock.The fact that all delegations favored diversion to ten States. President Salva requested to be given three days to return back to South Sudan for consultations on the matter with his constituency. After consultation, he will report back the matter to the IGAD chair on February 15, 2020.
Hence, on Friday February 14, President Salva Kiir invited senior government officials to attend an urgent consultative meeting on the contentious issue of States and their boundaries, including his two deputies, national ministers, parliamentarians, presidential advisors, State governors, civil society representatives, foreign diplomats, and all parties to the peace agreement who refused to attend, saying, “the consultation is for the government alone, it doesn’t include them.”
During the opening, Kiir explained what had taken place in Addis Ababa, especially his stand on issues of disagreement. In the IGAD summit, Kiir rejected the reduction of 32 States. At the same token, President Kiir’s supporters unanimously rejected any reduction of 32 States during consultation with local leaders in Juba. Kiir told people, “What brought us here today is the issue of states, I brought this to you so that you decide, my brother Riek Machar and other non-South Sudanese who are living with the blood of South Sudanese people have different suggestions on the table, the government is saying 32 states plus Abyei,” Kiir told local leaders during consultation meeting in Juba.
The SPLM-IO favors reverting to between ten states and 23 states. However, “IGAD and the international community said they need a lean government. We have reached a deadlock, that’s why we came back for consultation. We were given six days until tomorrow (Saturday) we will take back what you will decide,” said Kiir. He also criticized foreign influence in the ongoing stalemate over the unresolved number of state issues with the opposition, adding these foreign players have shown bias during the talks. “I have fought the so-called special envoys. They will tell us something here and go there to their heads of states with different information. There are people who stay with us and who have made South Sudan their own project for food, one day if we reach an agreement, they will be jobless and this is what they don’t want,” said Kiir.
Meanwhile, Dr. Riek Machar has welcomed the East Africa bloc council of ministers’ recommendations of 10 or 23 states and not 32 as maintained by Kiir. “We welcomed the recommendations of the Independent Boundaries Commission (IBC) of 10 states, the recommendations of the IGAD council of ministers of 10 or 23 plus one state (Abyei) and of the summit of the three heads of state and government of 10 states,” Machar said in a statement issued in Juba. The IGAD heads of states during the regional body’s 34th Extra-ordinary summit accepted Juba’s request to undertake further consultation on the number of States. The issue remains the main contentious issue alongside security arrangements, which are delaying the formation of the much-awaited transitional unity government (TGoNU) slated for Saturday. IGAD in its official communique released after the meeting said it recognized that the issue of the number of states and their boundaries is an internal South Sudanese matter and hence, solution should come from the South Sudanese people. On Saturday February 15, 2020, President Kiir narrowed the consultation to the presidency, ministers and the country’s top army generals.
After a thorough deliberation on the subject matter and in the interest of peace and stability in the country, the presidency resolved to return the country to ten (10) States and their previous respective counties. President also announced the establishment of three administrative areas, namely, Abyei, a region whose border demarcation with Sudan remains controversial, the oil rich area of Ruweng and Gold hub Pibor. In his remark following the concession, Kiir said, “the compromise we have made today is a painful decision but a necessary one if that is what is going to bring peace.” “I expect the opposition to be prepared to do the same;” referring to the disagreement about the integration of the different fighting forces.
In his response, Riek Machar said, “he appreciates the government’s decision to revert back to ten States. However, Dr. Riek has expressed dissatisfaction with the creation of the three administrative areas, saying, “It cannot be referred to as reverting to 10 States, as such cannot be accepted.” “We, therefore, call upon President Kiir to reconsider this idea of creating administrative areas.” Furthermore, Machar warned the three areas risked causing further problems, calling the issue a Pandora box. Although Dr. Riek has rejected the creation of three administrative areas, the issue has not been a contentious stumbling block, given the progress attributed to the political willingness President Kiir has shown. Instead, Dr. Riek agreed to return to Juba and join the transitional government to accept the position of First Vice President. In that regard, the government of South Sudan and the SPLM/A-IO had decided to forge ahead with the formation of the Revitalized Transitional Government of National Unity without security arrangement. Then, on February 19, 2020, Salva Kiir dissolved the old cabinet to make way for opposition members.
On Saturday February 22, 2020, the Transitional Government of National Unity was formed, marking the start of a 36-month transitional period ahead of the holding of elections in accordance with the terms of the Revitalized Agreement on the Regulation of the conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS). According to the terms of the R-ARCSS, Salva Kiir will continue as the President, Riek Machar as the First Vice President, James Wani Igga; Taban Deng Gai; Rebecca Nyandeng De Mabior and Hussein Abdelbagi as Vice Presidents. The event was marked by the calls for reconciliation and efforts for sustained peace in the country that has been devastated by war in only two years after gaining its independence from Sudan. In his remark during the ceremony, President Salva urged people in the country to forgive each other and end their differences, saying he would work with all his new deputies to lead the country on a path of peace. We must forgive one another and reconcile. I want to reiterate here that I have forgiven my brother Riek Machar. I also ask for his forgiveness and I also forgive all those who still are holding out on this peace agreement,” “I am calling on all the people of South Sudan to forgive one another. I particularly want to appeal to the Nuer and Dinka communities to forgive one another and reconcile. I also appeal to the people of Equatoria, especially those who have experienced much of the devastation, to forgive and reconcile.” Kiir said he does not wish to see any bloodshed in South Sudan ever again.
For his part, former opposition leader Machar said he was committed to implementing the peace agreement with Kiir. He said the two of them would work collectively to end the suffering of the people of South Sudan. “I want to reiterate my commitment and the commitment of the SPLM-IO [Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition] to work closely with the peace partners, and particularly President Kiir, to implement the agreement in letter and spirit.” The swearing-in ceremony was attended by the head of Sudan’s Sovereign Council Lt. Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, along with diplomats and dignitaries from several regional countries. However, at the time Vice Presidents were sworn in, all warring parties had not yet finalized allocation of ministers and State governors.
Despite the rhetoric on Vice Presidents inauguration, distribution of ministers did not come easy. The parties rivaled hard as to which type of ministerial positions each party is going to get. That stalemate came to an end in March. On Thursday March 12, 2020, ministers were divided as stipulated in R-ARCSS
Following the conclusion of the parliament reconstitution and swearing in of the National Legislative Assembly, peace partners turned their attention to formation of State governments. Like the rivaling over ministerial positions, the parties immediately disagreed and failed to reach a consensus on responsibility and allocation of the States and local government levels. Despite the disagreement, and lack of consensus, Kiir took a unilateral move to work on States allocation ignoring peace provision that stated decision–making within the Presidency will be collaborative and will be based on continuous consultations with written records kept.
Moreover, peace document spelled out that, incumbent government should nominate five State governors and the remaining five can be dispersed between the rest of the parties. Nevertheless, Kiir proceeded with the allocation of the States. He allocated six regional states (Central Equatoria, Eastern Equatoria, Lakes, Warrap, Northern Bahr el-Ghazal and Unity) to his party, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement in Government (SPLM-IG) and attempted to give SPLM-IO two States. When SPLM-IO disagreed after hearing the move Kiir has taken, he then gave IO three states (Jonglei, Western Bahr el-Ghazal and Western Equatoria). He then allocated Upper Nile State to the South Sudan Opposition Alliance (SSOA) and left OPP that supposed to have one State without one.
The allocation right away spark disagreement, as Machar and other opposition parties were contesting the unilateralism displayed by Kiir, arguing that the decision does not consider and acknowledge the relative prominence of the political parties within the respective states and administrative areas. It is such decision making and problem-solving approaches that produce disunity and mistrust among parties to the R-ARCSS and in government. The responsibility of sharing states should have been motivated by the rationale to ensure effective decentralization and devolution for better governance, rather than be driven by nonproductive politics of power struggle and the wish for control.
When the parties concluded States distribution, they turned to remainder provisions in the peace document especially Chapter 2 of the R-ARCSS which relating to Permanent Ceasefire and Transitional Security Arrangement, Chapter 5 which provides for a holistic and comprehensive program of transitional justice to address widespread human rights violations, including through the establishment of: a Commission on Truth, Reconciliation and Healing; a Hybrid Court; and a Compensation and Reparations Authority, the issue of permanent constitution and other challenges make it difficult to address some of the root causes of the conflict in South Sudan.
One of the most frustrating phenomena in South Sudan’s conflict history has been the unwillingness of parties to peace agreements to implement what they agreed upon in good faith particularly Salva Kiir. The R-ARCSS provides for the unification, training and redeployment of forces to be done within the first eight months (pretransition), upon which the tenure of the transitional government would start for a period of 36 months, constitutional review, and elections for the next government coming at least 60 days before the end of the transitional period are only on paper.
The rhetoric always dies down. Since the formation of South Sudan as an independent state in 2011, there have been no national or state elections. The government claims legitimacy based on elections in 2010. The first national elections in South Sudan were scheduled for 2015. As part of the peace deals of 2015 and 2018/2020, national elections were deferred multiple times. This has solidified President Kiir’s dominant position and maintained the power dynamics between the SPLM and Vice President Riek Machar’s faction of the SPLM-IO. In April 2015, the South Sudan parliament voted to amend the transitional constitution of 2011, extending the presidential and parliamentary terms until July 9, 2018, with a significant SPLM majority. Subsequently, the elections were postponed again in July 2018 to August 2021 and once more in 2022 to December 2024. Now the interim period has been extended again to December 2026. In reality, Salva Kiir is frustrating the progress in South Sudan by refusing to deploy unified forces, for the reason that, the environment will not be conducive for opposition party leaders to campaign once the campaign trail kicks off.
In conclusion, the fifth extension of (R-ARCSS) had shown the fate of South Sudan’s political future remains uncertain. Salva Kiir is unwilling to implement any peace oppositions signs with him. He refused to release money for permanent constitutional review and decided to use money for bribery instead. Due to the political and security situation in South Sudan, the country’s economy is not performing as it should in order to generate sustainable, inclusive economic growth.. South Sudanese people are struggling due to low wages. salaries are not enough to address the suffering of civil servants and organized forces. Civil servants are surviving by selling small goods like tomatoes, onions, and bananas to help feed their families. Members of the armed forces are meeting their end meet by collecting firewood or carrying natural toothbrush Miswak for sale on the streets in Juba. This show that, Salva Kiir is the only reason of South Sudanese suffering.
Respectively,
Lul Gatkuoth Gatluak
Lul is a political commentator. He can be reached at lulgatluak09@gmail.com
