By Deng Elijah
March 24, 2025(Nyamilepedia) — When Dr. Machar signed the Revitalized Agreement of the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCISS) in 2018, majority of us, who wanted a peace agreement that would be respected and implemented by all parties without hesitation, tried to reach out to Dr. Machar to advise him on why he should not fall for R-ARCISS. Even after he signed it in Khartoum, Sudan and Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, many of us tried to stop him from going to Juba but all in vain.
After he landed in Juba, many of us and particularly the SPLM/A-IO had no option but to accept his decision for the sake of peace. Believing that he must have had enough time to think over it for those two years he was in Pretoria, South Africa, and knowing that he willingly consented to take such a huge risk that may claim his own life for the sake of humanity, the SPLM/A-IO had to allow Dr. Machar “to surrender” to his arch rival. This was not because they trusted president Salva Kiir and his bodyguards to protect Machar’s life better than them but to give Mr. Kiir the benefit of doubts to see if he would instruct his forces to observe the ceasefire, protect the SPLM/A-IO leadership in Juba, and implement the peace agreement in letter and spirit as promised. Had it not been for the love of peace and humanity, Dr. Machar had better options for his safety that include choosing to live in exile in any African country or abroad.
The R-ARCISS easily gave Mr. Kiir a lion-share in power sharing arrangement and abrogated the two-armies precondition and other red flags that the SPLM/A-IG capitalized on in 2016 to uproot the peace agreement. Unlike the ARCISS (2015) where the SPLM/A-IO garnered 33% in power sharing and 33% in the presidency, which was composed of the president, 1st Vice President and one Vice President; the SPLM/A-IO settled for less in R-ARCISS, accepting 27% in power sharing and 4 Vice Presidents, which reduced Machar’s power ratio in the presidency to 16.7% and increased the number of his bitter rivals at the highest tables.
Dr. Machar also knew that his residence would be barricaded by Salva Kiir’s bodyguards and he would need their permission to go anywhere including a permission to take a short call. He knew that he would not win motions not only in the presidency, where Kiir commands a staggering majority of up to 87% (4 VPs plus Kiir) but also in the cabinet and the national parliament (R-TLA) where the SPLM/A-IG enjoys a simple majority of up to 73 percent (55% from SPLM-IG, 10% from SSOA and 8% from OPP). All these compromises were made simply to entice the president and to put all the responsibility on his shoulders to see if he would implement the peace agreement and allow the country to prosper. If there was any other serious precondition the president demanded, I’m confident it would have been given. Such good-will gestures were meant to demonstrate the SPLM/A-IO commitment to peace!
So, Dr. Machar was fully aware that he would be bullied left and right and could be arrested or possibly assassinated in Juba but instead he welcomed the risk with a huge smile and took his chances, but now that his life is in imminent danger, instead of panicking or trying to find means to escape, he is assuring the South Sudanese, peace guarantors and sympathizers that he will never vacate Juba just because for the fear of his life. Many people called him names for making such a decision when he did in 2018 but again looking back, it’s the wisest decision a man with a vision could ever make.
Like Martin Luther King Jr, who once said “a man who has not discovered a purpose to die for, is not fit to live”, Dr. Machar continues to wear his vision, which agitates his opponents to the core, on his forehead as if nothing is happening. He continues to function as normal despite at the mercy of his enemy who is constantly arresting and intimidation his men. More than 30 SPLM/A-IO senior leaders who include the Chief of Staff and Ministers are lingering behind bars. Many innocent Nuer civilians in different parts of Nuerland are being constantly bombarded, sometimes in the middle of the night, by the SSPDF and hired Ugandan mercenaries, the UPDF. At the same time, over 500 SPLA-IO soldiers at an SPLA-IO garrison at the border of South Sudan and Sudan were ambushed, rounded up and all killed by the Sudan rebels, the RSF.
Notwithstanding the physical intimidation and harassment, the government and its supporters are constantly deploying their huge media outlet to propagate false allegations and grave speculations, but Machar has despised all odds, at least so far. Instead of showing vulnerability or trying to refute false accusations, he urges his SPLA-IO forces not to take law into their own hands. He also pleads to the White Army to peacefully handover the prisoners of Nasir’s war and not to attack their neighbors and the SSPDF and their Ugandan mercenaries. His actions beg many questions but the decision over his life puts president Salva Kiir at more risk than Machar himself.
Fear of death at this point to Dr. Machar does not appear to be one of the 99 problems that keeps the 73-year-old up at night. He must have come to conclusion that dying for the sake of peace and the vision that he fought for for over 40 years is more honorable than dying naturally due to old age or accidentally to a “short illness”. It’s obvious that since Machar and Kiir signed the life of Machar into the hands of Kiir in front of African leaders and the international community, the onus is on Kiir to be a man enough to honor his commitment to protect the life of Machar and his men than Machar would want to worry to protect his own life. Even if the R-ARCISS fails today, it would still be Kiir’s responsibility to protect Machar in Juba or else Kiir would be obliged to allow Dr. Machar and his men to exit Juba peacefully to any destination of their choice.
The obligation to protect a rival in your territory, especially when they voluntarily surrender to your authority, is not just a prerequisite for peace agreements but a very common practice among many societies in Africa and around the world. It’s considered an act of cowardice to take advantage to kill your rival, who has compromised, surrendered or entrust your authority to protect their lives. Salva Kiir, Riek Machar, John Garang and many South Sudanese rebel leaders were in the same position in Khartoum after signing the 1972 Addis Ababa Peace Agreement, 1997 Khartoum Peace Agreement, 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement, among others, yet Khartoum regimes honored their commitments to protect the notorious Southern rebel leaders of different rebel moments. Despite that many of those peace agreements collapsed at the end, there wasn’t as much intimidation and harassment as what is being experienced by the SPLM/A-IO leaders in Juba.
The ongoing intimidations, harassments and gross violations of the Revitalized Agreement of the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCISS) is very dangerous for the future of the country. Such cowardice behavior will not only erode trust among the leaders to compromise in the future for the sake of the country, but it will also damage social fabrics between communities. Arresting leaders along tribal lines or humiliating leaders because they come from a certain tribe will make it nearly impossible for our communities to reconcile and live in harmony.
As witnessed in Kenya, Rwanda, Ethiopia, Somalia and other neighboring countries, assassinations of senior leaders from one particular tribe, e.g. the assassinations of the Luo politicians during Jomo Kenyatta leadership in 1960s left a huge divide between the Luos and Kikuyu to these days. Numerous attempts by Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta, whose fathers felt apart, to reconcile the two communities have hardly yield any success.
Similarly, in Rwanda the pro-Hutu government of Juvénal Habyarimana, which adopted pro-Hutu policies of the first Hutu-led government of President Grégoire Kayibanda against the Tutsi tribe, eventually led to the assassination of president Habyarimana and the 1994 Rwanda genocide between the Hutu and Tutsi tribes. It must also be noted that although the founder of the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF), Fred Gisa Rwigema, a Tutsi, was assassinated before the RPF liberated Rwanda from Habyarimana’s dictatorial regimes, his assassination did not kill the RPF vision. Instead, a smarter, more energetic and more battle-hardened Gen. Paul Kagame emerged to lead his people to final victory.
Like Rwandan and Kenyan histories, our very own history has taught us that the assassination of Dr. John Garang de Mabior did not kill the country or the SPLM/A vision to liberate South Sudan. Instead, it empowered the leaders that followed to do the impossible. This is what the whole world witnessed through the euphoria and strong unity among the South Sudanese that brought the independence of South Sudan in 2011. In addition, we just witnessed a similar event in Nasir where the killing of the leader of the White Army outraged the poorly armed youth to overrun a force they could not defeat in 11 years and annihilated the whole battalion of the SSPDF.
In conclusion, intimidations, harassments, assassinations, counterinsurgencies, exterminations of a tribe(s) or group(s), and divide and conquer policies will only escalate the conflict and lead to full disintegration along tribal lines or a full liberation of the whole country. To avert such cacodemonic consequences, President Salva Kiir, SSPDF leadership, Dr. Riek Machar, Benjamin Bol Mel, other Vice Presidents and other senior leaders must choose the path of peace in good faith. Instead of focusing on hurting one another, arresting or killing X and Y, please implement the peace agreement in letter and spirit. Make the R-ARCISS implementation attractive to entice the holdout groups to voluntarily join the peace implementation; otherwise, it’s a contradiction to continue to negotiate more peace agreements in Nairobi and Rome when the peace agreements that were signed 7 years ago are being constantly violated and the principal signatories are literally in jail in Juba.
Deng Elijah services in BC Prosecution Services. He is the Founder and Executive Director of Nyamilepedia. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and not any organization or institutions the author affiliates with or work for. For interview or more information, please contact the author through the social media or through his LinkedIn.
