Life is a tragedy when seen in close-up, but a comedy in long-shot – Charlie Chaplin
By James Nguen
- General background
Sunday, February 16, 2025 – The Republican Decree aired on the 10th of February 2025, on South Sudan Broadcasting Corporation (SSBC), President Salva Kiir has successfully removed one major obstacle, which often prevented him from bringing Hon. Dr. Benjamin Bol Mel as his successor.
In the said Republican Decree, President Kiir fired Vice President Dr. James Wani Igga, and replaced him with Hon. Dr. Benjamin Bol Mel as the 2nd Vice President and 1st Deputy in the SPLM-IG Party’s hierarchy.
President Kiir has not only fired Dr. James Wani Igga from his position as the vice president, Kiir has also removed Dr. James Wani from his position as the 1st Deputy from the SPLM Party. Similarly, President Kiir has demoted Gen. Kuol Manyang Juuk and Gen. Daniel Awet Akot from the SPLM Party hierarchy.
In whichever angle one looks at President Kiir’s surprising and humiliating moves, Dr. Benjamin Bol Mel’s path and ascendancy to presidency is cleared, imminent and assured.
With certainty, it is clear that President Kiir will appoint Dr. Benjamin Bol Mel as his successor, using the pretext of the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS). President Salva will use the same agreement he himself does not respect and refused to implement, but only to convenience his political moves.
For example, Article 1.6.5 of the Revitalized ARCSS states, “in the event that the post of the president falls vacant during the Transitional Period, for any reason, including mental infirmity or physical incapacity of the office holder, the replacement shall be nominated by the top leadership body of the respective Party as at the signing of this agreement”.
Following this clause, President Salva will nominate Dr. Bol Mel as his successor – the next President of the Republic of South Sudan. In doing so, President Kiir will soon call a special session of the SPLM Party and declare that he is sick and physically incapable and can no longer run the country. Therefore, the SPLM Party should nominate his replacement as provided for by the agreement.
Due to the fact that Dr. Bol Mel has now taken over Dr. James Wani’s position in the Party and Gen. Kuol Manyang Juuk and Gen. Daniel Awet Akot are both demoted, Salva Kiir will nominate Dr. Benjamin Bol Mel as his replacement and declared him leader of the SPLM-IG Party and in earnest as President of the Republic of South Sudan.
- Anticipating dissenting voices in the SPLM
Gen. Kuol Manyang Juuk and Gen. Daniel Awet Akot are the only two men who stand the chance of dissenting voices against President Salva’s humiliating move. The anticipated dissenting voices of Gen. Kuol and Gen. Awet are expected and in the minds of all the SPLM- SPLA cadres, across political landscapes in South Sudan and beyond.
However, if Gen. Kuol and Gen. Awet chose not to dissent due to incentivization, problem solved and crisis averted within the SPLM -IG. This scenario is possible if both Gen. Kuol and Gen. Awet are incentivized and accepted to retire wealthy. As a matter of analysis, I believe this strategy is highly possible and will work in President Kiir’s favor..
In contrast, if Gen. Kuol and Gen. Awet took what is given but insisted in following the principle and traditional order of the SPLM, a crisis will ensue and confrontation will occur within the SPLM-IG.
For the SPLM-IO under Dr. Riek Machar, the party is blindsided and caught off guard. In the scheme of things, Dr. Machar and the SPLM-IO will only serve the function of gracious spectators as the politics of succession is raging and coming to a dignifying end in South Sudan.
Politically, the SPLM -IO is checked mate through R-ARCSS, even though President Salva often violates the R-ARCSS concurrently. The SPLM-IO is blindsided using the same agreement it has stood firmly for, while enduring many sad and consistent humiliations. In this regard, we must accept that the political trajectory in South Sudan in terms of succession politics has just changed for better or worse.
- Ethnicity and clanist politics
In normal circumstances, the SPLM Party under President Salva Kiir would have sat and chosen his replacement based on the Party’s hierarchy. Often these processes follow a rigid and strict political hierarchy of the Party. However, President Salva has honorably violated this normal chain of command following the elevation of Dr. Benjamin Bol Mel.
Considering ethnicity politics in this context, President Salva has cemented the Dinka dominance and rule by firing Dr. James Wani Igga. Within the Dinka Community, President Salva has also played clanist politics with a glaring trust deficit. President Salva demoted Gen. Kuol and Gen. Awet intentionally due to trust deficit. The President does not trust the Dinka living in Lake and Jonglei States, respectively. This is a sad reality which underscores the succession politics in the Republic of South Sudan.
- Conclusion
In closing, we must accept that Gen. Kuol Manyang Juuk, Gen. Awet Akot and Dr. James Wani Igga suffered equal humiliations. Gen. Kuol Manyang Juuk and Gen. Awet Akot are both demoted while Gen. Dr. James Wani Igga received a humiliating firing verdict.
For many of us, these political moves by President Kiir are eye-opening and stand as one of the nastiest political maneuvers. These political moves qualified as “life is a tragedy when seen in close-up, but a comedy in long-shot” for those looking inward from periphery.
As this succession politics is majestically coming to a close, President Salva will no longer carry out his duties as the President. Therefore, with tricks and might, Salva Kiir has zero in on a successor with flying colors. Dr. Benjamin Bol Mel’s path and ascendancy to presidency is cleared, imminent and assured.
James Nguen is a South Sudanese Political Commentator living in South Sudan. He can be reached at jamesnguen@gmail.com
