Dr. Ran Kuoth Chak,
Wednesday, March 26, 2026 (Nyamilepedia) — Following the incident of Nasir and the chaotic burial of Lt. Gen. Majur Dak, who was slain by the White Army for beheading their leader, Tor Gile Thoan, and refusing to surrender when his troops were defeated, the government tried so hard to flex its muscles to prove its strength but all in vain.
The hiring of the Ugandan troops and their equipment was one scary strategy but the recruitment and training of over 200, 000 young men from Warrap and Northern Bhar el Ghazal to manhandle South Sudan state with an iron fist was the scariest. Luckily both are crumbling. The few battles so far have proven both strategies wrong. The killing of the battalion and its commander in Nasir proves that it is a suicide mission to recruit an army from one tribe. For the last three weeks, there has been a lot of bitterness from those whose sons, brothers, uncles and nephews were killed in Nasir, and 98% are from one tribe, Dinka.
In retaliation to revenge the killing, they tried to use Ugandan troops to go to wipe out the Nuer. It has been three weeks since the Ugandan troops started their bombardment but it is backfiring. The indiscriminate killing of innocent civilians has angered many citizens including leaders and intellectuals from the Jieng community. Members of the international community are reporting the crimes to their governments and institutions. That also comes with consequences. Embassies are closing, South Sudan currency is depreciating, prices are rising in the market and youth are voluntarily mobilizing in Juba to fight the government. Social media is bursting and South Sudanese communities in diaspora have started their demonstrations.
Since the incident of Nasir, Juba has been experiencing insecurity from activities around Juba and social media. There are reports that youth are leaving Juba to join the SPLA-IO forces at the outskirts of Juba and Luri. Attempts to push back the SPLA-IO forces who are observed to be encroaching on Juba through aerial bombardments has escalated to intense fighting in Wunaliet and Rajaf. In both garrisons, the government forces, SSPDF, and their allies, Ugandan People Defense forces, got defeated with serious casualties. It’s believe that this has led to the capture of Luri which is president Salva Kiir’s private home and military training center.
So, the president and his military leadership have a reason to be angered. Their military which has not been paid its salaries for more than 2 years is refusing to fight.
Government troops in Panyikang of Upper Nile state, who came into confrontations with the SPLA-IO, also got defeated. The news of fighting in Upper Nile and Central Equatoria did not go as expected by the government. This has silenced the loud mouthpieces, Lul Ruai and Makuei Lueth.
To add salt to a fresh injury, youth from Mayom also attached cattle keepers in President Kiir’s home of Twice East and raided a lot of their cattle.
Attempts to bombard the White Army of Mayom is expected to lead to a massive confrontation that may end up in Warrap. Most of the government forces in Mayom and Bentiu have low opinion on the government. Their leaders that include the notorious Gen. Mathew Puljang were detained in Juba in 2019-2021 and their senior politicians that include former governor Dr. Nguen Manytuil and Tutkew have faced humiliation and could face more humiliation from their opponent, Gen. Taban Deng Gai, whose only obstacle right now is Dr. Riek Machar. It Taban manages to take power from Riek, some Bul-Nuer politician, especially Nguen and Tutkew, could face jail.
Nothing will make Taban more happy than arresting his main rivals, Riek Machar and Nguen Monytuil.
In J1, a careful calculation of the next phase of the conflict has revealed that the government troops do not have any motivation to fight on and Ugandan troops are not willing to lead the war but to support the government troops by air and small reinforcements. This has forced president Salva Kiir to order his troops to observe the ceasefire hoping that Machar would do the same.
This is what fueled the house arrest of Dr. Machar last night. To weaken him, they came in a large number to disarm his bodyguards and tried to speak authority into his head but Riek remained very calm and steadfast. He knows them.
They tried to intimidate him, telling him that they will take him and his wife to prison where they will face severe consequences or get killed. A lot of trash talk and intimidation went on for over 5 hours in Riek’s residence urging him to end the war by denouncing his leadership of the SPLM/A-IO and the white army. They wanted Riek to denounce his Commander-in-Chief of the SPLA-IO forces and to announce resignation from the peace agreement. A resignation from the position of the First Vice President could see Taban Deng Gai installed, very easily!
Riek refused and told them to go to Kiir to fire him if he thinks he has powers to do so. As a bribe, they told him if he accepts to denounce the SPLA-IO and he distances himself from the Nuer youth, the White Army, Ter Chuong and Nyaborjiok, then they would give him a VIP protections and other services he will need for free.
Should Dr. Riek Machar accepts to resign, the Jieng Council of Elders, Salva Kiir, Taban Deng Gai and Bol Mel will rejoice. It has been Taban’s lifetime dream to impose himself as the Nuer kingpin and the Princes of Unity State. Knowing that Taban is a political psychopath, who will do everything in their favor, a resignation from Dr. Riek will give them power to do whatever they wish with the country including marginalization of smaller tribes and no one will hold them accountable.
When Riek refused their package and stood his ground, they resorted to konkoach. They left him in his house but they will definitely return to finish their mission when they think they can do so without resistance from the Nuer community, SPLM/A-IO, and majority of South Sudanese who are sympathizing with Riek Machar and the situation of the country.
On the other hand, Sudan and Ethiopia, who are the main peace guarantors, are strictly keeping an eye on Juba and they show that they are not impressed by what J1 is about to do.
The author Dr. Ran Kuoth Chak can be reached through his email at rankchak@gmail.com,
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