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Analysis: ๐ƒ๐ž๐š๐ ๐จ๐ซ ๐š๐ฅ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž, ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ž๐ง๐๐ ๐š๐ฆ๐ž ๐Ÿ๐š๐ฏ๐จ๐ซ๐ฌ ๐ƒ๐ซ. ๐Œ๐š๐œ๐ก๐š๐ซ!

By Deng Elijah,

Machar graces launch of symposium on federalism
First Vice President Dr. Riek Machar Teny (photo credit: Facebook)

๐–๐ž๐๐ง๐ž๐ฌ๐๐š๐ฒ, ๐€๐ฉ๐ซ๐ข๐ฅ ๐Ÿ—, ๐Ÿ๐ŸŽ๐Ÿ๐Ÿ“(Nyamilepedia) โ€“ On that fateful night, on March 26, 2025, when the Minister of Defense and Veteran Affairs, Hon. Chol Thon Balok and the Chief of National Security, accompanied by a huge convoy, ransacked Dr. Riek Machar Teny Dhurgonโ€™s residence, their intentions and directives were crystal clear. They wanted to intimidate Dr. Machar to surrender and โ€œkneelโ€ before them as Museveniโ€™s son, Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, hinted just a few days earlier on his X/Twitter handle.

According to those who were at Dr. Macharโ€™s residence, they tried to intimidate Dr. Machar to voluntarily:

๐Ÿ. ๐‘๐ž๐ฌ๐ข๐ ๐ง ๐Ÿ๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐…๐ข๐ซ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐•๐ข๐œ๐ž ๐๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ข๐๐ž๐ง๐ญ.

๐Ÿ. ๐‘๐ž๐ฌ๐ข๐ ๐ง ๐Ÿ๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฅ๐ž๐š๐๐ž๐ซ๐ฌ๐ก๐ข๐ฉ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐’๐๐‹๐Œ/๐€-๐ˆ๐Ž.

๐Ÿ‘. ๐ƒ๐ž๐ง๐จ๐ฎ๐ง๐œ๐ž ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐’๐๐‹๐€-๐ˆ๐Ž ๐š๐ง๐ ๐๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐ง๐ค ๐ก๐ข๐ฆ๐ฌ๐ž๐ฅ๐Ÿ ๐Ÿ๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐š๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž๐ข๐ซ ๐š๐œ๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐ž๐ฌ.

๐Ÿ’. ๐ƒ๐ž๐ง๐จ๐ฎ๐ง๐œ๐ž ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐–๐ก๐ข๐ญ๐ž ๐€๐ซ๐ฆ๐ฒ/๐๐ฎ๐ž๐ซ ๐˜๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ก ๐ฐ๐ก๐จ๐ฆ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž๐ฒ ๐›๐ซ๐š๐ง๐๐ž๐ ๐š๐ฌ ๐š ๐ญ๐ž๐ซ๐ซ๐จ๐ซ๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ ๐ซ๐จ๐ฎ๐ฉ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ฐ๐š๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ ๐ฌ๐š๐ง๐œ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ž๐ ๐›๐ฒ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐”.๐’. ๐ฌ๐ญ๐š๐ญ๐ž.

๐Ÿ“. ๐‘๐ž๐ญ๐ข๐ซ๐ž ๐Ÿ๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐œ๐ฌ, ๐จ๐ง๐œ๐ž ๐š๐ง๐ ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ ๐š๐ฅ๐ฅ.

After roaring out these demands with nothing but hatred orchestrated in a tight grip of a fist and clenching of teeth, they assured Dr. Machar that if he follows their instructions, accepts and obeys their demands, they would spare his life and grant him amnesty to live as he wishes anywhere in South Sudan. This must have been the biggest joke of the year.

Who would have thought that the men who could still be fighting today for the NEW SUDAN VISION (unity of Sudan) would intimidate the separatists who forced them to accept the call for self determination in the eleventh hour? Well, history is repeating itself and if their plan to throw Dr. Machar to the wolves succeeds, they would have as well thrown the country to the dogs!

Dr. Machar had nothing to negotiate with them. He refused everything outright and told them to go to Salva Kiir to dare to fire him. After over 4 hours of intimidation, they slapped Dr. Riek with a house-arrest, vandalized the whole residence, arrested bodyguards, relocated residents to unknown location and walked way.

All these humiliations of Dr. Machar and his senior colleagues have nothing to do with the incident of Nasir. It was premeditated. Salva Kiir is a typical coward who never forgive and never forget. He has been looking for a golden opportunity to arrest and โ€œteach Riek a lessonโ€ since 1991. He thought he had the opportunity in 2013 and promised on a live television to prosecute Machar and his colleagues but failed. He lured him back in 2016 and tried to kill him again, but he failed, again. This time (2025) he thought that he has fully disarmed Dr. Riek, who has been guarded by his bodyguards since he landed in Juba, and it was just a matter of time to falsely frame him and eliminate him, once and for all.

For almost 6 years, Salva Kiir and his mentor, Yoweri Museveni, have been closing in on Dr. Riek as they prepare grounds for the D-Day. All plans to weaken the SPLM/A-IO and to divide and conquer the Nuer have all been lined up on the table. Nuer generals and politicians in the government are the new slay queens in town. While some are promoted to the highest ranks in the military, others are appointed to the highest positions in both state and national governments. All this is being done on camera in a broad daylight to ensure that Nuer population sees the colorful weddings in disguise. They hoped this would divide the Nuer and weaken their fighting force; however, the dominoes effect is reversed. Unexpectedly, the plot is backfiring!

The plan that was expected to divide and weaken the Nuer nation has in fact united and strengthened the Naath and the 64 tribes against J1 elites. Nuer is more united today than it was in 2013 and 2016, and the Nuerโ€™s last line of self-defence, โ€œDech in Boorโ€(white army), is activated and more determined to fight anything that comes its way. The Equatorian and Western Bhar el Ghazal fronts are equally determined to face their enemy. Attempts to crash the white army and the SPLM/A-IO for the last one month have fallen apart even with the heavy supports of the Ugandan People Defense Force and the Sudan rebels, the Rapid Support Force (RSF). This news have overwhelmed J1 and are delaying the fake prosecution of Dr. Machar as the old guards are spending endless nights on the drawing boards!

While the government in Juba has taken advantage of the vulnerability of the SPLM/A-IO leaders under their control and are now trying to coerce them to repeat the failed strategy of 2016, SSPDF generals are beginning to defect to the SPLA-IO, declaring allegiance to the very man under the house-arrest. In addition, SPLA-IO and youth groups mobilization to wage wars against their enemies or the government are gaining momentum at a speed of light.

In the next few days, the government of South Sudan will realize that it has gained very little or almost nothing in their attempts to eliminate Dr. Riek Machar and the peace agreement. They should have realized this when their attempts to destroy the SPLM/A-IO through starvations and isolation flattered in their face. By the time they would realize that none of these is the solution they are hoping for, they would wish they never did, but it would be a little too late. They would be faced by a new prisoner dilemma and that will force them to try to release Dr. Riek and his senior comrades; however, that could also backfire.

They will fear that if they release Dr. Machar and accord him all his full rights and privileges, they will risk losing him to the bushes of the Greater Upper Nile or into the hills of the Greater Equatoria but if they continue to detain him, then uprising would continue to strengthen against the government. When everything else fails, including the Kangaroo court trial, they would be forced to negotiate with Dr. Riek Machar; however, Dr. Machar has already envisioned the outcome.

Dead or alive, like Martin Luther King Jr, Malcolm X, Dr. John Garang de Mabior and many other icons, who were assassinated or died fighting for what they believe in, Dr. Machar has made a history that will live on for centuries to come. If he survives this attempt on his life, he will live a life synonymous to that of Nelson Mandela but if he succumbs to his arch rivals, he would be remembered like Patrice Lumumba (PLO), former Prime Minister of the Republic of Congo and Thomas Sankara, former Prime Minister of Burkina Faso, who succumbed to their rivals who were backed by foreign governments.

๐ƒI๐’C๐‹A๐ˆM๐„R

๐‘‡โ„Ž๐‘’ ๐‘ฃ๐‘–๐‘’๐‘ค๐‘  ๐‘’๐‘ฅ๐‘๐‘Ÿ๐‘’๐‘ ๐‘ ๐‘’๐‘‘ ๐‘–๐‘› ๐‘กโ„Ž๐‘–๐‘  ๐‘Ž๐‘Ÿ๐‘ก๐‘–๐‘๐‘™๐‘’ ๐‘Ž๐‘Ÿ๐‘’ ๐‘ ๐‘œ๐‘™๐‘’๐‘™๐‘ฆ ๐‘กโ„Ž๐‘œ๐‘ ๐‘’ ๐‘œ๐‘“ ๐‘กโ„Ž๐‘’ ๐‘Ž๐‘ข๐‘กโ„Ž๐‘œ๐‘Ÿ ๐‘Ž๐‘›๐‘‘ ๐‘›๐‘œ๐‘ก ๐‘กโ„Ž๐‘’ ๐‘ฃ๐‘–๐‘’๐‘ค๐‘  โ„Ž๐‘’๐‘™๐‘‘ ๐‘๐‘ฆ ๐‘กโ„Ž๐‘’ ๐‘”๐‘Ÿ๐‘œ๐‘ข๐‘๐‘ , ๐‘Ž๐‘ ๐‘ ๐‘œ๐‘๐‘–๐‘Ž๐‘ก๐‘–๐‘œ๐‘›๐‘  ๐‘Ž๐‘›๐‘‘ ๐‘กโ„Ž๐‘’ ๐‘’๐‘š๐‘๐‘™๐‘œ๐‘ฆ๐‘–๐‘›๐‘” ๐‘Ž๐‘ข๐‘กโ„Ž๐‘œ๐‘Ÿ๐‘–๐‘ก๐‘–๐‘’๐‘  ๐‘œ๐‘“ ๐‘กโ„Ž๐‘’ ๐‘Ž๐‘ข๐‘กโ„Ž๐‘œ๐‘Ÿ. ๐น๐‘œ๐‘Ÿ ๐‘š๐‘œ๐‘Ÿ๐‘’ ๐‘–๐‘›๐‘“๐‘œ๐‘Ÿ๐‘š๐‘Ž๐‘ก๐‘–๐‘œ๐‘› ๐‘ฆ๐‘œ๐‘ข ๐‘๐‘Ž๐‘› ๐‘Ÿ๐‘’๐‘Ž๐‘โ„Ž ๐‘กโ„Ž๐‘’ ๐‘Ž๐‘ข๐‘กโ„Ž๐‘œ๐‘Ÿ, ๐ท๐‘’๐‘›๐‘” ๐ธ๐‘™๐‘–๐‘—๐‘Žโ„Ž ๐ป๐‘œ๐‘›, ๐‘กโ„Ž๐‘Ÿ๐‘œ๐‘ข๐‘”โ„Ž ๐‘’๐‘š๐‘Ž๐‘–๐‘™ ๐‘Ž๐‘ก ๐‘‘๐‘’๐‘›๐‘”๐‘ ๐‘–๐‘š๐‘œ๐‘›200 ๐‘Ž๐‘ก ๐‘ฆ๐‘Žโ„Ž๐‘œ๐‘œ ๐‘‘๐‘œ๐‘ก ๐‘๐‘œ๐‘š.


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