Replacing the 2015 Agreement and the Strategy of Imperfect JCE-Tabanists Alliances:
Aug 2, 2017(Nyamilepedia) —– From july 8, 2016, the political configuration between president Salva Kiir and his self styled JCE venerated First Vice President Taban Deng signifies an attempt by the ruling Jieng Council of Elders to muzzle the collusion of the elites of Jieng and that of the “Nuerwew” of Upper Nile under Taban within the governing elites in Juba.
Dr. Riek Machar Teny, Chairman and Commander in Chief of the SPLM/AIO threatening to dislodge the hegemonic tendencies of the JCE was expelled from Juba in mid December 2013, and fled towards Upper Nile region. He managed by 2015, to win support of at least greater majority of South Sudanese with political and military presence throughout the country.
The contention by the JCE to rule South Sudan as a monarchy after secession from Khartoum yoke for over 200 years as vindicated by and enshrined in their master plan was at stake within the context of 2015 Compromised Peace Agreement (CPA).
The 2015 August peace accord dubbed Agreement on the Resolutions of conflict in South Sudan (ARCSS) laid flateform for gradual demolition of Jieng power by prescribing package of general sectoral reforms and overhaul in state institutions and laws. Key to this is adoption of federalism. This efforts by the SPLMAIO under Dr. Riek Machar regional and international community was laid obsolete by domestic and international conspiracies and intrigues.
Domestically, contending to carry on with status quo the JCE shopped for weak links within the SPLMAIO ranks and files by exchange of favors and promises as well as cash dollars exchanging hands in hotels.
Well, the former governor of former unity state Gen Taban Deng Gai who had been an erstwhile ally of president Kiir and JCE and a business friend in the oil industry and former South Sudan Ambassador to United State Ezekiel Lol Gatkuoth colluded with JCE executed by Gen Paul Malong Awan to overthrow Dr. Riek Machar, and the 2015 Agreement by attempting to kill him and members of his advance team whom some were already getting deployed in transitional government of national unity (TGNU)and institutions implementing the peace agreement.
This was never an accidental political configuration or alliance of coincidence. While there are those who might have been overtaken by events of July 8, 2016 in their hotel rooms in Juba and those with unquenchable lust for wealth, power and political naivety the findings of UN Panel of Experts reports of August, 2016 reveals, that the JCE in determination to carry on with their colonization of the country, planned, ordered, and executed the July ground and air attacks on the first two (2) cantonment sites of SPLMAIO in Juba.
The lethal blow to ARCRSS in July, 2016, and subsequent expulsion of Dr. Riek Machar and some members of his advanced team was an interim victory to JCE in the young Republic. This illusion quickly evaporated after Dr. Riek Machar after a lull of 40 days made it to DRC Congo and was successfully extracted from thickets.
The collapsed of the agreement led to the collapsed of state in which;
- Security law and order; fighting engulfed the entire country including those areas that were relatively peaceful before the 2016 crisis; increased in crime rates by members of government security forces; in most part of the country state of nature exists;
- Economy and standards of living; the inflation is oscillating between 600-800%, with increased costs of living and poverty leading to deteriorating living conditions and destitution;
- Social fabric and disintegration; out of the 64 tribes of South Sudan almost none trusts the other. Peaceful coexistence has collapsed, strife, suspicions and hates is the mode of interaction. This situation has pitted tribes against tribes, region against regions, ethnicity against ethnicity;
- Public Services; not only are public servants not being paid but also the available resources to provide public goods in government controlled areas is acutely inadequate or none existent;
- Massive death, displacement and humanitarian crisis; almost half of the population have been displaced and hundreds of thousands dead, the man made humanitarian catastrophe has reached global record levels, starvation and world largest refugee crisis; entirely these are man made.
These backlash of the collapsed of ARCRSS do not resonate well with the grips of JCE on power and the legitimacy of the system they try to create with the support of elements under the leadership of Taban Deng Gai.
Forging Imperfect Jieng-Taban Alliances to Replace the TGNU and a Search for Jieng-Nuer Perfect Alliance:
Time and again, Taban Deng and his assistant Ezekiel Lol have reiterated that they were “cooperating” “working harmoniously” with Salva Kiir to implement peace agreement. This peace being referred to is the imperfect alliance synonymous with friendly relationships between a lion (Jieng) and Gazel (Tabanists). The JCE (lion) motivation is hegemony, while the Tabanists (Gazel) is political survival, protection and resources access.
Facts and evidence point to the reality that Agreement and TGNU have withered with the collapsed of the Permanent Ceasefire on 8th July, 2016; and continuous warfare in the country. Dr. Riek Machar was expelled and replaced by Gen Taban Deng in show of supremacy over the politics of South Sudan by JCE. To the Tabanists, personal motivations such as wealth, power, privileges, etc override all else while the JCE intends to accomplish their project of hegemonic tendency and recolonization.
The current political equation in Juba is in effect a conglomerate of Jieng-Taban Nuer political pact spearheaded by Kiir Mayardiit (Jieng) on one hand and Taban Deng (Nuer) on the other rationalized or spiced by the marginal inclusion of loyalists from minority tribes of South Sudan without stake in day today running of affairs of state.
The Jieng-Nuer alliance or collusion as a balance of force is a politically prestigious tool long desired by JCE in furtherance of their hegemonic egos. This alliance of political and military elites supported by their mass base, potentially can be a tremendously dangerous socio political setup to the detriment of interests of other weaker 62 minority tribes of South Sudan especially those that may want to accent to political and economic prominence.
What makes political configuration between JCE and Tabanist in Juba imperfect is the fact that there is split between the Nuer nation with few clique loyal to Taban Deng and majority population loyal to SPLMAIO under Dr. Riek Machar now fighting in the bushes.
The JCE in their master plan are determined to keep Dr. Riek who still commands nation wide support at bay and enforce or impose Taban Deng clique on Nuer nation by the barrels of guns. The military campaign now in north eastern Upper Nile of killing Nuer by Nuer is a testament. In one battle in Adar state, out of 123 death of the government forces, 87 of them were Nuer. Big strategic success by the JCE ideologues.
Likely Scenario if JCE-Tabanists Alliance succeeds in Upper Nile:
Firstly, the alliance will perfect itself into a concrete political and military pact or coalition of tribes similar to the political scenario in Kenya in which tribalism is embedded in the politics and governance of a country. The JCE shall stop at nothing to realize this.
Secondly, when the JCE led military campaign defeats or weakens the SPLMAIO forces in Upper Nile in the Nuer areas they will turn their combined (JCE-Tabanists) military forces to annihilate SPLMAIO and other oppositions forces elsewhere in chollo land, Equatoria and Bar el Gazel and that would mean the end of political and military oppositions and the advent of one party state embedded on tribal hegemony. The hopes for reforms and federalism also fades away.
Thirdly, the alliance will continue to sabotage every efforts towards peace process and genuine political inclusivity in the country.
Gen. Oyet Nathaniel Pierino,