SPLM/A-IO’S CHANGE OF STRATEGY VITAL

Not relying on enemies to win is even more crucial.

By Deng Vanang,

Lt. Gen. Gabriel Duop Lam alongside Dr. Riek Machar and other senior officers of SPLM/SPLA-IO in Juba, 2016(Photo: file)

Lt. Gen. Gabriel Duop Lam alongside Dr. Riek Machar and other senior officers of SPLM/SPLA-IO in Juba, 2016(Photo: file)riek

July 30th, 2017(Nyamilepedia) —— Unfounded fear, misplaced optimism and mercantilist mentality have long conspired to define SPLM/A-IO’s policy ever since the war broke out in 2013.

Such misjudgments made the guerrilla movement to live on the good will of its enemies, while it ironically expects to win the bloody race.

These enemies are both from within and out. Some enemies from within have since crossed over to the other side they rightly belong on 8th July last year.

Others from within and still in IO’s inner sanctum are more assuming and gullible decision makers who read from script of sheer optimism than usual skepticism which politics requires till the opportunity is seized and well secured in the hand.

Enemies from without are foreigners who disguised as friends of IO and its leader, Dr. Riek Machar. Or in another word paid agents of Juba regime out to mislead the movement and make it pursue an impractical politico-military strategy.

The misleading strategy peppered with cash inducements lured the movement and its leader into thinking that they could and can still win the war from position of military weakness at the negotiating table away from battle field.

The paid agents maliciously advised that it was politically unwise for an IO and its leader to wrest control of resources centers from the regime which currently led to Dr. Machar being technically imprisoned in far-flung South Africa as his IO outfit got driven out to the edges of the country where it faces uncertain political future.

That ameliorated position in which they are precariously placed so far has also comfortably put Juba regime in stronger position of dictating terms for peace and subsequent capitulation of IO and its leaders who now languish in cage of diplomatic waterloo.

To reverse its misfortunes, IO has to shed off all those secret enemies and treat them as the same open enemies fighting them in Juba.

For they can’t pretend to support IO and on the contrary prevent it from dealing a fatal blow to its rival’s fortresses such as all oil fields, Nimule – Juba high way and Capital Juba itself that deny it much needed victory.

Equally if traditional neutrality and impartiality required in mediation process are of any significance, IO is to jettison JMEC’s Chairman, Festus Mogae off the already collapsed peace’s bandwagon.

Not to spare too, are those who pay bills of Juba’s arsenals as well as fight on its behalf to render the movement irrelevant, while posing at negotiating table as mediators in Addis Ababa.

Their continuous success in confusing IO over the years by juggling the diametrically opposing missions of both war and peace has become such an IO’s diplomatic undoing courtesy of three above mentioned vices.

Deng Vanang is a Writer, Journalist and political analyst who is reachable at:dvanang@gmail.com

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One comment

  • Deng Vanang
    Your observation is right on point. New strategy that target the flow of oil and coordinate offensive is desperately needed.

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