ABDUL FATEH AL-ASISI OF EGYPT FOEIGN POLICY MENDELING IN THE HORN OF AFRICA AND WATER POLITICS IN THE NILE BASIN

By Professor David de Chand

A handout picture released by the Egyptian Presidency shows Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi (R) shaking hands with South Sudan's President Salva Kiir at the presidential palace in the Egyptian capital, Cairo, January 10, 2017. (Photo by AFP)

A handout picture released by the Egyptian Presidency shows Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi (R) shaking hands with South Sudan’s regime leader Salva Kiir at the presidential palace in the Egyptian capital, Cairo, January 10, 2017. (Photo by AFP)

June 4th, 2017(Nyamilepedia) —– Perhaps, foreign policy flawed that Egypt undertaken in the Horn of Africa, South Sudan, Ethiopia, and the Republic of Sudan has been its recent military intervention in Ethiopia, South Sudan and Sudan crises that could only be compared to its unsuccessful military intervention in South Yemen years ago. The Horn of Africa and the Nile Basin are now in big crises, dichotomies, and political dilemmas that could become one of the most dangerous warfare ever fought retrospect to the 1920s Post-Somali Sheikh Ahmed Gran uprising against the Italian, French, and the British colonial rule in the post-WWI (1914-1919), the post-WWII (1939-1945), uprising of African nationalism demanding de-colonization through passive resistance or through he intensification of the armed struggle and the post-East-West ideological confrontation or the Cold war in the region. Egypt’s strongman and rag-tag Abdul Fatah Al-Assisi intervention in Ethiopia, South Sudan, and the Republic of Sudan, certainly, ushers a new pandemic, chaotic situation and a “New Pandora’s Box” or a “New Tinder’s Box” that if left un-checked or uncontained could spark dangerous warfare throughout the Horn of Africa (HOA) region: firstly, in Ethiopia because of Egypt’s adamantly rejection of the construction of the Greater Ethiopia Regional Dam (GERD) and its recently declared military support of the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) to fight its proxy war against Ethiopia that has been in existence since 1978 and stationed Cairo, Egypt, against the past and the present governments in Ethiopia  that the Egypt has been adamantly against the construction of the GERD because of its fear of water flows reduction.

Therefore, the support OLF to fight Egypt’s proxy war against Ethiopia has been calculated to install the GERD construction that Egypt has opted to give military, logistics, and training support to the Oromo National Liberation Front (ONLF) that has been in existence retrospect 1973 and made no headway in its chronic, the longest, and unpublicized historic resistance against what the OLF has termed as Ethiopian colonialism, domination, oppression, and exploitation. Certainly, Egypt may not commit direct troops involvement, but it could utilize the OLF to fight its proxy war with the main purpose of destroying the GERD and other strategic economic projects undergoing development in Ethiopia to eradicate hunger, poverty and to achieve self-sufficiency, self-reliance, and food security for the rapidly population explosion with a population of 96 million and rising in Ethiopian compared to Egypt with  same population explosion of 96 million and increases by a million mouths every nine months of the year. Besides, Egyptian support for the OLF, it has fueled war between Ethiopia and Eritrea at Badme that according to the experts, to call it’s a town is an overstatement. It’s more a collections of humble huts along a dusty dirt road. Of course, in my opinion, as long as Badme likes any other African border own whether it’s built of humble huts, bricks houses, and log coffin homes, it’s sure a truly African border town that has been contested by the two neighboring states Eritrea-Ethiopia on historical grounds on their national political boundaries.

Furthermore, Egypt wanted to build a Naval Base in one of the Red Sea Islands controlled and under jurisdiction of Eritrea in such volatile situation that could irritate the Israelis, Saudi Arabia, Ethiopia and the superpowers. Because Cairo- Asmara-Teheran has a pact they all agreed to supply Hussein rebels in Yemen, Baku Harem Al-Shabab in Somalia, and Sudan rebel Movements (JEM, SRF, SPLA-N), respectively. Of course, Saudis, Turkey, and Israelis as regional powers that have been vying for the creation of a New Middle East status quo ante may preconceive this policy as an act of aggression to fuel more crises in an already volatile region.

Secondly, concurrently helping the Dinka Dictator-for-life Salva Kiir, Egypt has been lured into the ongoing treacherous tribal cultural divides and deeply entrenched warfare or as if a civil war that it had already opened Military Training Centers (MTCs) for OLF in Kapoeta in Eastern Equatoria region of South Sudan that is closer to the Nuer-Ethiopia in Gambela Region #12 of the ethnically flexible federation in Ethiopia on the Southwestern region along a distance of 500 Sq. Kilometers with a population of approximately 5million of which 80% comprises of the Nuer-Ethiopia that is parcel and an integral part of Ethiopia. The OLF should know that it is at highly risk and vulnerable to be stationed in its newly opened MTCs in Kapoeta that remains a highly contested military war zone between the GOSS and IO rebel forces within the region and the Greater Upper Nile region that is the hub of the IO military war machine that IG soldiers do not want to be transferred to be stationed in any Garrisons in the Greater Upper Nile where they have lost so many lives of their comrades, including Ugandans, Egyptians, Kenyans, Rwandese, Burundians, Tanzanians, Somalis, including soldiers from IGAD plus some Countries with vested interests in South Sudan.

Thirdly, in the past few months retrospect to Slava Kiir’s visit to Cairo, Egyptian Government policy towards South Sudan has drastically and significantly changed. We have known ever since the conflict started in the mid-December 2013, that the Egyptian begun to supplying Juba was arms in the aftermath of the South Sudan foreign minister Dr. Barnaba Marial Bill Benjamin, an Egyptian educated medical doctor in Cairo University, visited to Cairo, followed by ferrying of large quantities of non-lethal weapons or small light arms, artillery pieces, T-55 and T-62 Tanks and Walid APCs otherwise known in Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) jargon as al-Rajul al-Dinka (The Dinka man) or in Dinka nicknamed it as “Machot a ci bien” that the Nuer White Army (NWA) fighters and soldiers have captured or destroyed so many of them because the IG Dinka soldiers used to run away from the NWA, including leaving behind equipment, Ammunitions, rations, and heavy fuel trucks or lorries for troop carriers, equipment and loaders for the tanks behind. Egypt also provided trainers for Juba. The NWA and the IO troopers have either captured or killed many Egyptian in the Battles alongside GOSS SPLA. Nowadays, however, Egyptian and Ukrainian pilots have been dropping sorties against the civilians’ population and IO positions that became ineffective and caused no causalities at all. We know of only Wau-Shilluk was the only area that Egyptian pilots flew low and inflicted heavy causalities against the civilians’ population.  Assuredly, we would soon have the means to shoo down he Egyptian and Ukrainian planes through South Sudan.

Succinctly, I shall illustrate specific reasons for the Egyptians intervention in South Sudan for the record as follows that:

  • To complete excavation of the unfinished Jonglei Canal;
  • To defeat South Sudan rebel forces on their own turf to facilitate the complete excavation of the unfinished Jonglei Canal;
  • To support Sudan OLF rebel Movement against Ethiopia and Sudan rebel forces through South Sudan as a corridor or the end user for the ferrying in supplies, weapons and equipment of different types against Ethiopia and Sudan, respectively.
  • The Evidence of the aforementioned became clear in recent weeks in the fight along South Sudan-Sudan border between Sudan’s Rapid Deployment Forces (RDF) and the rebels and in Eastern Darfur region between Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the rebels without a cause that included the captured and destruction of many equipment, tanks, Quarter-ton trucks (Texture) and Egyptian tanks and personnel captured now in Sudan prisons and detention facilities in and around Khartoum and throughout the peripheral areas alike;
  • To incite border dispute between Ethiopia and Eritrea over the disputed Badwe town;
  • To support Oromo Liberation against the de jure Federal government of Ethiopia;
  • Adamantly opposed to the construction of the Greater Ethiopia Regional Dam (GERD);
  • To shorten the flight distance from Juba to Ethiopia if Egypt ops to bomb the GERD;
  • Collaborate conjointly with Yuri Museveni of Uganda against the Lord Resistance Army (LRA)

FACTS:

Let us hypothetically assume that Egypt or is proxies temper with the GERD, it could produce catastrophic results as follows that:-

  • The GERD could flood 1, 6580 Sq. Kilometers of forest in northwest of Ethiopia, South Sudan and Sudan (an area approximately equals o Cairo).
  • Could make more than 200, 000 in Ethiopia could become homeless and IDPs;
  • Created a reservoir that will hold 70billion cubic meters of waters- equivalent to the annual flows for the Blue Nile River a Sudan border;
  • The GERD project once completed projected electricity of 6,00Megawats (Mws);
  • GERD project costs estimated between US$4.8b to US$7billion (about 15-20% of Ethiopia GNP in 212.

DEFECTION

  • Many defections have occurred in the military in Juba the past few weeks, thusly o he confusion created by the acute differences that have occurred between the illegitimate President and the chief of the SPLM Army that remains a party’s army because South Sudan does have does not have yet, a congruent and systematic defined national army like other states in Africa and beyond.
  • Many junior Officers, Enlisted and the NCOs and Chief Warrant Officers (CWOs), including bureaucrats and technocrats have also defected.
  • GOSS has serious liquidity problems because South Sudanese Pound has been declared as non-legal tender, the inflation has taken a big chunk, No hard currency to be borrowed from the international financial institutions, i.e., he World Bank (The WB) and International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Community Banks (ECB) and others.

WAR ESCALATES THROUGHOUT SOUTH SUDAN

  • Salva Kiir has declared war throughout South Sudan since 8 February 2017.
  • He proposed the so-called National Dialogue that has been rejected by the opposition, including some members of the so-called Jieng Council of Elders (JCE).
  • IO and other forces have captured many new strategic areas along the west bank of the White Nile River.

Presently, Egyptian soldiers and its Air Force planes and personnel are in Juba fighting for Salva Kiir with the hope or anticipation that they would defeat IO guerrillas and to begin to finish excavation of the unfinished Jongeli Canal to compensate lost water flows from the GERD on the Blue Nile River from Lake Tana, Ethiopia as a result of the GERD construction and completion. As a matter of fact, he unfinished Jonglei Canal could be excavated the will of the Nuer nation and its resilient people. We would be ready ever to suck it to any Egyptians engineers, workers, surveyors and soldiers that would venture to undergo reconstruction of the unfinished Jonglei Canal because his would happen only over dead bodies. We would also conjoin forces with Ethiopia to fight the OLF side-by-side until would be defeated. We have already issued a pre-warning to the OLF never to mess around in Nuer-Ethiopia in Gambela Region# 12 of the ethnically flexible federal system in Ethiopia to vacate the MTCs in Kapoeta to go saint elsewhere for military raining against Ethiopia, the Nuer nation and its resilient people would consider that any attack on Ethiopia would be an attack against the Nuer nation because Ethiopia is also considered to be their country like South Sudan and Sudan that the Nuer straddled along the borders and citizens of Sudan like in Ethiopia that are all our countries in  the Horn of Africa. The Nuer nation believes that anything that affects Sudan or Ethiopia would also affect the Nuer people most. Therefore, the Nuer nation and its resilient people would not standby in case of terror attacks against either Ethiopia or Sudan or both, we will be at the frontline to protect our communities and the Nuer nation in South Sudan. We do give our relations with Ethiopia and Sudan a top priority and nothing or nobody would ever attempt to alter or change this historiography relations.

Reckoning, my capacity as an academic and international and African affairs regional expert with emphasis on the Horn of Africa and a full pledged member of IO rebels forces throughout South Sudan  in Greater Equatoria, Greater Bahr-el-Ghazal and  Greater Upper Nile regions, united in a united front, it gives me great pleasure and honor to inform the Egyptians and the international community that Egypt’s strong man’s Abdul Fatah Al-Assisi’s foreign policy towards Ethiopia and South Sudan is pretty dangerous and if the regional powers and the superpowers alike should fail to restraint the Arab Republic of Egypt [ARE] from fueling and igniting the looming and brewing warfare in the Horn of Africa that has been already volatile Horn of Africa region because of the presence of Al-Shabab fundamentalist, radical and extremist Muslims fighters in Somalia and sometimes launched terror incursions into Kenya respectively.  Affirmatively, President Al-Fateh al-Assisi and his politico- military adventure in Ethiopia, Africa’ Youngest Republic of South Sudan, and the Republic of Sudan, has already labeled and given Egypt a pretty bad rap as an aggressor and a war monger that is pretty destructive for the Horn of Africa. Rather, than, peaceful and political solution as well as the analytical, logical reasoning and reasonableness to resolve regional disputes peacefully as stipulated in Article 52 of the UN Charter that empowered the regional powers worldwide to undergo undertaking resolving all regional disputes through peaceful and political conflict resolution by any means necessary. It’s a pretty dangerous venture with highly acute and zero-sum dividends.

Concerning the situation in the Horn of Africa, it has become so acute compared only the chronic Arab-Israeli conflict in the Middle East and because of this volatility of this situation, unfortunate, any mishaps could figure trigger lighting to start more new bush fires in the region that Egypt could not afford to quench. Let’s assume hypothetically that if General Al-Assisi should make the Horn of Africa to become an international quagmire or to make the Horn of Africa to become an international “Hot Spot” like it was years ago during the high peak of the East-West ideological confrontation or the Cold War era, it could become one of the most regrettably epics or episodes that Cairo would ever be committed in the post-Cold War and the post-Arab Spring or post- Arab Streets era in Egypt and throughout North African countries. It should be pronounced in advance if he any war breaks out in the Horn of Africa its consequences would be catastrophic not only for Egypt, but the entire region and beyond. Therefore, the developing in the horn of Africa should be given urgent and the greatest attention by the regional leaders, including Egypt. The recent development along South Sudan-Sudan borders and Eastern Darfur States, it would also Egypt support Sudan rebels groups such as, Justice for Equality Movement (JEM), Sudan Revolutionary Forces (SRF) led by General Abdul Aziz El- Helio and General Yasser Armand, and SPLA-North led by General Malik Agar in the Southern Blue Nile State (Ingessena).

African leaders that have got involved in South Sudan should embrace for more war and social revolutionary uprising within their own territories and Uganda will become the first victim this time around since it fueled and ignited the mess in South Sudan on 12 December 2013. South Sudan rebels have not declared war against the Museveni’s dictatorial and genocidal regime in Kampala, but they will sooner rather than later. We will get rid of Salva Kiir’s genocidal regime and his so-called Jieng (slaves) Council of Elders (JEC). We would like to take out the straw in our eyes first such that we could be able see clearly what neighbors’ or brothers’ eyes are.  Museveni’s should underscore and know that “what you reap is what you sow” and that “the measure you give will be the measures you get.” We will support any Ugandan rebel movements as long as they are opposed to Yuri Museveni’s Kaya-Rwanda regime in Kampala, Uganda. The people of Uganda should up rise against the dictator for life like the Arab Spring and the Arab Streets social revolution that produced change in the North African countries of Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt.

The Egyptians should not forget that the Horn of Africa is critical and will not be like Yemen and Sinai where the Egyptian Fifth Army was encircled, held hostage, and besieged by the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) in the Yom Kippur War of October 1973 and the former US, Secretary of State Professor Henry Kissinger of Harvard University had to undergo through series of shuttle diplomacy to normalize the situation. The IDF could have easily crossed the Suez Canal into Egypt under the command of IDF General Moshe Dayan en route to Cairo, but restrained by the international community pressure points and the USA, the UK, and France in particular, that halted the IDF to enter and to occupy Cairo.

In the Horn of Africa any politico-military venture by Egypt would become high risk undertaking and would not be like the prior experiences in Sinai and South Yemen. It could become tragic, fatal, and the worst experiences for the Egyptian commanders and the foot soldiers would not forget in their lifetime.  There are many obstacles really waiting the Egyptian military forces, viz., geography, the terrain, people, language and culture that is non-Arabic could become unfriendly for them, they would have to go on foot instead of conveys; there no paved roads; so many streams and many poisonous tropical snakes bites that killed instantly, “General Mosquito,” “Black Water Fever” and crocodiles would also take their share against the Egyptian forces of neo-colonialism in Africa. Al-Abdul Fatah Al-Assisi should think twice or thrice before venturing into the Horn of Africa. Already many people are anti-Egyptian Muslims who have been termed as “anti-Christians” and “non-Muslim” folks alike that they are fully aware of and in of their fellow Christians plights and their mistreatments in Egypt and throughout the Islamic world like what happened in Tanta’s Coptic Church last fortnight south of Cairo last Sunday, Syria and Iraq in their ongoing ISIL, DAESH, and Taliban Wars.

SUPPORT FOR SALVA KIIR’S GENOCIDAL REGIME

Anyone supporting and supply weapons to the genocidal regime in Juba should be considered as an accomplice and such an international war criminal. The mid-December 2013 Juba Genocide was and still part and parcel of he Dinka Bor war against the Nuer retrospect to the October 1991 Bor incident that Dr. Machar should not have apologized for that. Dinka Bor leaders such Kuol Manyang Juuk, Dr. Majak d’Aggot,  Makui Lueth, Lual Deng Achuek and icon of he Bor  Dinka Abel Alier and many other  fueled the war in South Sudan. The SPLM Secretary- General Pagan Amoun, Dr. Lam Akol, and the so called alAwald Garang’s conspiracies misled Salva Kiir to turn against Dr. Riek Machar. Now, that they have failed in such conspiracies, where would they go? What would they do? They have not defeated the Nuer nation and its resilient people.

Certainly, the Nuer nation conjoined by other Southerners opposed to Salva Kiir’s genocidal regime or if it were to stand up alone, it would surely, defeat the Dinka Bor and they could be forced to cross the river to Aliab swamps and they could not be still safe either.  For the so-called Twic Special Militias under the direct command of Salva Kiir and fired Chief of the General Staff Command General Paul Malong Awan and others, they should anti a pretty long and bitter long hull dirty war within the Dinka Heartland in Bahr-el-Ghazal. They should know for sure that this war would not end with the defeat, submission, and total destruction of the Mathiang Anyore by the Nuer ferocious fighters “Thon Anyarni” (Tut muokni). I would like Salva Kiir to know that as I will soon assume the leader of the New IO rebel forces, I am no nonsense leader, but I will match every consignment of weapons that Salva Kiir imported from Ukraine and China three or four times than what had had received. I will be pretty aggressive and peace will come through strength, but not in weakness. This is the Bottom line. Nevertheless, I would be committed to peace and not war, but I must and ought to protect the peace by any means necessary. The era of Dr. Machar would be history and a bygone epic or episode.

For the Church in South Sudan as a whole, it failed the work of Jesus Christ, the King of the Jews, which proclaims to have died for both Jews and the Gentiles alike. The Church, per se, broke one of Moses’ Ten (10) Commandments that “Thou shall not kill.” It failed to protest the genocide and stood side-by-side with the Dinka led GOSS that targeted the Nuer ethnicity for extermination as a final solution in whole or in part. Surely, indeed, the Nuer people have survived the Dinka perpetrated genocide defined… as the gravest and the greatest crimes against humanity and the Dinka paid so much too soon and still to anticipate more destruction still to come because it’s only a matter of time. The war would not be over soon as we anticipated and it’s still has more time and years ahead to go on as it is now. We prepared ourselves for the worst because we are not all out of the woods, yet.

We could not agree more with the UK Oversea Development Minister Madam Priti Patel that “declares South Sudan killings as genocide” and pursuing a “scorched- of- the-earth policy”, saying killings in South amount to genocide and call on African leaders to involve ending the carnages. Affirmatively, although this gives only condemnation, it has created a new political ringtone in the post- Brexits from the EU and it has come too late too soon. Nonetheless, we should commend the UK government and the British people that for the first time since the UK departure from Southern  Sudan as the Administering Authority on 1.1.1956 and left a civil war unresolved that lasted two scores and ten years for political independence from the Arabicized Muslim North that eventually created the “paradox of two Sudans” and the first major world’s power to make such a condemnation since the genocidal war begun in the mid-December 2013 up to present in Africa’s youngest failed state in South Sudan. The Nuer nation as a nation of nations like the USA, France, the UK, Belgium, Canada and other nation-states worldwide, we will forgive, but we will not forget this event committed against us by our Dinka cousins forever. It has already created a wedged between the Nuer and Dinka. Even when this war would over whenever that is, South Sudan would not be same as it was prior to the ongoing treacherous tribal warfare or as if a civil war.

The US failed to condemn the genocidal regime in Juba because it fueled and ignited the war by the former US President Barak Obama and the Secretary of State John Kerry.  It’s Obama-Kerry’s War or Obama’s neo-scramble in South Sudan similar to European colonial and imperial powers scrambled for Africa in the post-Berlin Conference of 1884-85 to colonize what was once known as the “Dark Continent”. There would be no significant politico-economic gains that could cause or motivate Egypt to get involved in the internal affairs of South Sudan. It has been lured, misled, and lied to by the crooks and the most rampantly corrupt individuals, and egomaniac in the Government of South Sudan [GOSS], including the empty headed or mindless or the feeble minded and illegitimate so-called President Salva Kiir and his wicked and killer generals in Juba. We do reckon that Egypt is concerned about the completion of Renaissance Dam or the Greater Ethiopian Regional Dam (GERD) and so it turns its interest around to seeking the completion of the unfinished Jonglei Canal that would not takeoff over the three million(3) plus people of Jonglei State over their dead bodies. If Egypt continues with its ill-profound and science of stupid interventions in Africa, it could become isolated and that could give Saudi Arabia and other regional powers plus some Countries already anti-Egyptian forces to an edge in Sub-Saharan Africa. We would work with all anti-Egyptian forces and friendly Arab and European countries in South Sudan less Egypt in the future and the present.

Because of Cairo supports for a dictator in Juba, overwhelmingly majority of South Sudanese have already become disenchanted and asphyxiated with Cairo and that could take generations to be repaired or to be healed. The war would be concluded with strength, but never ever in weakness in South Sudan by any means necessary, but Cairo would remain to become the biggest loser. Egypt must and ought to know that the Nile River does not belong exclusively to Egypt, but it’s historically belonging to Black Africa. It could also be diverted in the generations ahead and when that happens, Egypt could cry with crocodile tears. South Sudan like other Basin Countries would demand more water for its inhabitants far away from the Nile to have water for their agricultural development projects and human consumption.

In May 7, 1929, the Nile River was subject to hydro-politico-economic interactions. It’s the world’s longest river flowing 6,700 kilometers through ten (10) countries in northeastern Africa—Rwanda, Burundi, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, South Sudan, Sudan and Egypt— with varying climatologically conditions. The Nile water is the source of conflict for the inhabitants of the Nile Rivet. Egypt claims that it has a national historical on the Nile River, and principles of acquired rights have been a focal point of negotiations with upstream states. On the contrary, the Nile historically does not belong to Egypt but Black Africa. It was the British that gave the Egyptian such a utopia dreams in a Silver Platter and with a golden spoon in their mouths to utter such fabulous great demands and such outrageous claims that the Nile belongs to Egypt.

Personally, I urge and appeal to all the school teachers and academics to revisit geography, social studies, civic, and history to teach and to speak the truth about the sources of the Nile that do not originate from Egypt, but externally too away from Egypt in the East, Central, the Great Lakes regions in the African jungles and Mountains in Sub-Saharan Africa. We call on all the majority states less Egypt to dream of grandiose Water Project to divert drastically the Nile and to bring Egypt to its knees on its absurd ad absurdum claims that the Nile belongs to Egypt. If this is true that the sources of the Nile River is Egypt, would be a real diabolical interference in Ethiopia and South Sudan, we would be motivated and determined to cutoff such unprecedented claims by Egypt. Whilst Egypt is highly dependent on the Nile, there are factors that may lead to the necessity of conflict with other NBCs over the distribution of the Nile waters distribution. Egypt like any other NBCs has such agriculturally-dependent economy and as such, does not mean that it should get everything that it wanted at the expense of other member states of the NBC states.

Egypt has historically threatened Ethiopia and Tanzania over the Nile. This is a real political bluffing because Egypt could not afford to fight far way states with so many obstacles on its way to reach them in the first place. Even though Egypt armed the Somali separatist rebels otherwise known as Al-Shahba of the Somali origin with the grandiose plan to create a Greater Somalia in the Ogden Region-Ethiopia during and since Somalia aborted invasion of Ethiopia in the 1970s. The federal government of Ethiopia won over these rebels and had abandoned their claims and counter-claims of a Greater Somaliland as dream by Sheikh Mohamed Grand against the British, the French and the Italian colonialists in the 1920s similar to the Libyan greatest nationalist Mohamed Mukhtar- a character in history similar to M.K. Gandhi, Nelson Mandela, Martin Luther King, Jr. of the Civil Rights Movement in the US until he gunned down in Nashville, Tennessee in 1967 by James Ouray with the FBI behind the shadow of such an incident-successful military campaigns against the Italian colonialism in Libya.

Concerning Egyptian threats against Tanzania, there was all what I may term as the “hydro-political bluffing.” Even now that Egypt has started to train, armed OLF rebels and Eritreans against Ethiopia, they would not make a dent against Ethiopia because the international could allow Egypt its negative and poisonous activities against any AU member states whilst the rest are keeping silent. This would be one of the most sciences of stupid of African leaders. They should wake up against Salva Kiir’s policy of genocide and ethnic cleansing in South because leaving it this way could escalate the situation with catastrophic consequences against the Dinka tribesmen throughout South Sudan of the future. They would not finish everyone in whole or in part. They are systematically dying every day without probable causes in South Sudan. If they prefer to die for power for the sake of power, money and control, then, we could conclude that the Dinka leaders are bloody stupid and dumps headed. The Dinka would be reduced to rubble and would be forced out of South Sudan of the future because nobody would neither trust them nor would want to live with such savages anywhere in South Sudan.

THE 1929 NIILE WATER AGREEMENT

May 7, 1929, was the Nile Agreement between Egypt and Anglo-Egyptian Sudan. This agreement included:

  • Egypt and Sudan utilize 48 and 4 billion cubic meters of the Nile flow per year, respectively;
  • The flow of the Nile during January 20 to July 15 (dry Season) would be reserved for Egypt;
  • Egypt reserves the right to monitor the Nile flow in the upstream countries;
  • Egypt assumed he right to undertake Nile river related projects without he consent of upper riparian states;
  • Egypt assumed the right to veto any construction projects that would affect her interest adversely.

In effect, the Agreement gave Egypt virtual and complete control over the Nile during the dry seasons when water is most needed for agricultural irrigation. It also critically and severely limits the amount of water of water to Sudan and South Sudan and provides no water to any of the other riparian state. The policy mounted to monopoly of the Nile Water by Egypt solo.

The 1959 Nile Water Agreement between Sudan and Egypt for full control utilization of the Nile waters. This agreement included:

  • Calculated the quantity of average annual flow was settled and agreed o be about 84 billion cubic meters measured at Aswan High Dam, in Egypt.
  • The agreement allowed the entire annual flow of the Nile to be shared among the Sudan and Egypt at 18.5 and 55.5 billion cubic meters, respectively.
  • Annual water loss due to evaporation and other factors were agreed to be about 10 million cubic meters. This quantity would have to be deducted from the Nile yield before share was assigned to Egypt and Sudan.
  • Sudan in agreement with Egypt, would construct projects that would enhance the Nile flow by preventing losses in the Sudd swamps of the White Nile in South Sudan. The cost benefits of the same to be divided equally between them. If claim would come from the remaining riparian countries over the Nile water resource, both Sudan and Egypt shall, together, handle the claims.
  • If the claim prevails and he Nile water has to be shared with another riparian state that allocated amount would be deducted from Sudan’s and Egypt’s and allocations/ shares in equal parts of the Nile volume measured at Aswan.
  • The agreement granted Egypt to construct the Aswan High Dam that store the entire annual Nile River flow of a year.
  • It granted Sudan to construct the Rosaries Dam on the Blue Nile and, o develop other irrigation and hydroelectric power generation utilizes it fully utilizes the Nile share.
  • A permanent Joint Technical Commission to be established to secure the technical cooperation between Sudan and Egypt, respectively.

THE NILIE BASIN INITIATIVE (NBI)

The Nile Basin Initiatives (NBI) is a partnership among the Nile Riparian states that “seeks to develop the river in a cooperative manner, share substantially socio-economic benefits, and promote regional peace and security”. I was formally launched in February 1999 by the water ministers of nine (9) countries that share the river, namely, Egypt, Sudan, Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda and the democratic Republic of the Congo with Eritrea as an observer and South Sudan was still part and parcel of Sudan.

INTERNATIONAL LAW CONTEXT

The 1996 Helsinki Rules on the use of the water of international Rivers-adopted by international law Association at the 52nd conference held in August 1966, the rules govern use of waters of an international drainage basin concept as ay be provided otherwise by conventional, agreement or binding customs among the basin States. The 1995 protocol on shared Watercourse System in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) signed in Johannesburg, 28 August recognized among them the following principles: the Helsinki Rules on the use of the international Rivers and the work of the International Commission on the non-Navigational international; the relevant provisions of August 21 of the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development Rivers and he work of international watercourses…; the existing and emerging socio-economic development programs in the SADC region and their impact on the environment; development close cooperation for judicious and coordinated utilization of the resources shared watercourse systems in the SADC region; and the existence of other Agreements in the SADC region regarding the Common utilization of certain watercourses. Most of the aforementioned conditions and circumstances are non-applicable to the Nile Water sharing initiative. Egypt would have to relinquish its illegal monopoly of the 1929 Nile Water Agreement that it no longer viable given the political developments along the Nile River Basin for so many generations starting with Egypt as an independent and sovereign state in 1922 up to the birth of South Sudan as the tenth (10th) nation state on the Nile Basin Countries. There is no relevant comparison between SADC and the NBC. The NBC would have to be negotiated from the scratch and any past agreement would have to be re-visited through politico-legal arrangements.

EFFECTS OF TREATIESE AND POLICIES ON NILE BASIN WATER USE

During the colonial period, the UK effectively controlled the Nile through its military presence in Africa. Since Sudan became independence on 1.1.1956, it had renegotiated over the use of the Nile Waters at the expense of other Nile Basin Countries (NBC). They got struck on the colonized mentality rather adopting de-colonized mentality. 1959 agreement between Egypt and Sudan allocated all the entire average annual flow of the Nile to be shared by the two countries at 18.5 and 55.5 billion cubic meters respectively, but ignored the rights to water of the other eight (8) remaining states. Ethiopia contributes over 80% of the total Nile flow, but under the terms of the 1959 was entitled to none of its resources. Therefore, the construction of Greater Ethiopian Regional Dam (GERD) or the Renaissance Dam has been perfecto and legitimate for Ethiopia and there should be no turning back. Nevertheless, the agreement between Egypt and Sudan was not binding has not been binding on Ethiopia as it never been a party to it. In the 1990, Ethiopia countered Egypt and Sudanese measures to water development projects in Ethiopia to increase its irrigation and hydroelectric potential. In May 2010, Ethiopia and other Nile Basin Countries launched the Nile Basin Cooperative Framework Agreement (NBCFA) in a bid to ensure an equitable utilization between all the riparian states of the Nile, including the newly split South Sudan from the mother country-Sudan on 9 July 2011 as the outcome of the referendum  held under the international supervision on 9 January 2011to become a state that has failed and destroyed by the Dinka arrogance and the lack or the absence thereof of democracy, good governance; the rule of law, human rights protection, rampant corruption, embezzlements and self-aggrandizement. In the case of the Nile Basin Initiative, Egypt continues to be the primary user of the Nile waters.

As long as this monopoly exists under the 1929 Nile Water, the future looks bleak for Egypt because the majority of the NBCs would have to do as they wish without consulting Egypt for enhancing socio-economic development to the eradication of poverty, to become self-reliance and food-security. Most importantly, they have to undergo independently to build aqueducts to export more waters to the local areas often affected by droughts and other natural disasters throughout the region. For example, South Sudan would have to expand the White Nile both eastwards and southwards by building aqueducts to the dry areas throughout South Sudan Jonglei Canal would not be tempered with at all because that is a red line. Perhaps, the greatest question to probe to the NBCs is: will the Nile Basin Initiative help them to overcome the unjust and unequal distribution of the Nile Water resources? Surely, it were to be done right comprehensively or individually, it will surely help the NBCs and the Egyptian monopoly under the terms of the 1929  Nile Agreement could become obsolete and  curtailed drastically and the 19291 and 1959,including all other treaties or protocol win be invalidated  and declared to be null and void.

Analytically, the agreement was one sided and favored greatly Egypt at the expense of the NBCs unreal accorded Egypt’s control of 55.5 million cubic meters of waters to control the Nile water at the expense of the African- British colonies on the Nile Basin countries was considered as obsolete, invalidated, null and void. Such a monopoly would be illegitimate and be declared as history and a new structure and formula for equitable sharing of the Nile waters would have to be devised.

Every country on the Nile Basin does have every a right to the equitable Nile Waters sharing formula that would be determined by the majority consensus in any future agreements and Egypt could not declare threats or war as it had against Sudan and Ethiopia, respectively, in the past. Now, that South Sudan has become a new entity in the Nile Waters equation, Egypt would have to play it cool. We, South Sudanese do need more waters in despite of all year around rainfalls for extraordinaire agricultural development projects for self-reliance, self-sufficiency, and food security. The concurrent famine is a man’s made disaster rather than a natural disaster. We squarely blames Salva Kiir’s genocidal regime in Juba for the war and famine alike. The international community should know and underscore that the war in South Sudan would not end soon unless Salva Kiir resigns or steps down from the Presidency. IO rebel forces would continue intensifying the armed struggle until Salva Kiir would be defeated. The people of South Sudan would not be asking for any permission from anyone, but would pursue to use the White Nile (Kier en boor), Zeraf (Phow), Pibor, Sobat and Gillo River’s waters as freely as it could for agricultural development projects.

We would like to expand into the hinterland agricultural projects that need irrigation waters and grazing lands for our “Horticulturalists”. Some areas do not have sufficient waters in South Sudan; therefore, the GOSS of the future will undertake expanding water projects to such areas for all year round seasonal planting of crops and vegetables for consumption and export as well as for the horticulturalists grazing lands for their herds and sheep and the Wildlife Conservation. We will freely dig more tributaries on the east-west banks of the Nile to the dry areas to drastically reduced waters’ evaporation. No matter what happens, Egypt would become a big loser because of its connections with Salva Kiir’s genocidal regime that is now rapidly crumbling or dwindling or diminishing to the point of return, unfortunately.

The IO rebel forces throughout South Sudan have been against the regime in Juba are motivated and determined to wage the armed struggle until it would be defeated. We also know that Egypt supports and supplies Juba with weapons, including Walid [APCs] T-55s and T-62s Soviet made tanks and other sophisticated weapons that the rebels have already captured these equipment and Egyptian Officers and Trainers have been either captured or killed in action with SPLA and it militias.  Because many rebels’ leaders are mad or angry with Egypt, this could poison and destroy the great legacy of President Gamel Abdul Nasser in Sub-Saharan Africa. Conclusively, we are assuredly clear that the unfinished Canal would never now and in the foreseeable future to be completed in South Sudan. This would happen over our dead bodies. This is the bottom. We would soon file a lawsuit in the French Court for the environmental disaster created by Compiegne Construction Internationale (CCI) plus heavy compensations for the citizens that have lost property and the wildlife conservation projects destroyed by CCI.

SUPPORT FOR OROMO LIBERATION FRONTAGSINST ETHIOPIA

Concurrently, Egypt and Russia are undergoing training of the OLF rebel forces in Southern Blue Nile mountains with the combined Sudan rebel forces of Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) led by Jibril Khalil, Sudan Revolutionary Forces( SRF) led by Abdul Aziz El-Helio and Yasser Arman and the SPLA-N led by General Malik Agar is red line. This plan would not become a boon, but a loss for Egypt at the end of the day.  IO rebel forces know the locations of the OLF training camps in Southern Blue State. What does OLF anticipate to accomplish against Ethiopia? The answer is none or zero-sum game. The Greater Ethiopian Regional Dam (GERD) has been completed. OLF will not overthrow the ethnically flexible federal government of Ethiopia. The ambition of OLF has been to attack Ethiopia through Gambela Region# 12 or what is now known as Nuer-Ethiopia southwestern Ethiopia of 500sq. Kilometers along South Sudan –Ethiopian border. Thus, any attempt by OLF to attack Gambela Region #12 would be fatal because the Nuer people on both sides of the Sobat and Gillo Rivers up to Beny Chongol in the areas plus the Nuer majority in Jonglei State in South Sudan will unite with all Ethiopians people and government forces against the OLF. The concurrent Egypt military pact with an internationally isolated is a kind of bluffing and will not any cost benefit analysis for Egypt in the foreseeable future in the region. It continues threats to Ethiopia could heart Egypt more than Ethiopia. The Western Countries mainly the USA, the UK, France and Israel next door to Egypt and South Sudan of the future in the aftermath of Salva Kiir’s dictatorship and genocidal regime or in the aftermath of the overthrown of the Dinka dynasty in Juba, Egypt could find itself Isolated. We do know that whatsoever Egypt does, it’s only for its solo vital national security self-interests.

They could not tolerate any powers to create political instability throughout the region and they could consider any attacks against Ethiopia would be attacks against them. The Nuer leaders and people on both sides have already been united on this plan would soon present it to the federal government of Ethiopia and the Governor of Gambela as sovereign authority for further deliberation. Most importantly, any attacks on the GERD would be considered as an attack against the Nuer Nation as a whole and we would fight back with all our might and strength and we can and will defeat anyone on the planet-Earth. This is the bottom line. If there has been nothing so dangerous that facing both Addis-Ababa and the Nuer people who are part and parcel of Ethiopia, OLF supports from Egypt will unite them without any qualms. We are ready for any eventuality.

The Governor of Gambela Region #12 would not tolerate on anyone causing up rising, insecurity, political instability and will not allow his “sovereign” region to be disrupted by a bunch of disgruntled thugs and terrorists. The people of Gambela and the Nuer of South Sudan will be united against the OLF and their Egyptian supporters. The Nuer on both sides of the Sobat and Gillo Rivers would consider any attacks against Ethiopia against them and would unite ranks and files against the OLF and its allies in the region. In the Gambela Region# 12 the OLF will not accomplish much but heavy losses, but it could accomplish more through a negotiated peaceful and political settlement. The President of the Republic is an Oromo and they are represented in the system commensurate to their number as one of the majority groups. OLF has been resisting for the past thirty (30) years and made pretty little accomplishments

We urge and appeal to the Egyptian government to get the hell out of South Sudan and Ethiopia. Without the shadow of a doubt, that the Nuer people on both sides of the Sobat and Gillo Rivers will unite with the federal government of Ethiopia to fight against the OLF and its Egyptian allies to seek peace rather than pursuing he war. We hope that President Al-Assisi would adhere to peace process between OLF and Addis-Ababa, but not to blemish the great legacy of the late President Nasser of Egypt foreign policy in Africa.

It’s now about time for Cairo to put its house in order to stop killings non-Muslims folks like what happened in the Coptic Church in Tantha south of Cairo last Sunday. Most importantly, we call on the US President Donald Trump not be deceived, manipulated, maneuvered and misled by Egyptian intelligence network to get involve to support Egypt’s foreign policy agenda in the volatile Horn of Africa to become a “hot spot” in international geo-politics and geo-strategic relations, especially in Ethiopia in supports of the OLF and South Sudan in support of dying genocidal regime in Juba. Certainly, Salva Kiir is pretty closed to fall in its fortresses in Juba. Egyptian should know that they could no long bully anyone in the region like the past because times and people have changed and above-average educated to analyze and to quantify their capabilities. This is the bottom line.

SUMMARY

The concurrent situation in the Horn of Africa has been already volatile and if it were to be fingered trigger could possibly generate a catastrophic war with series consequences in the region and beyond. In Europe, it is often said that “when Frances sneezes Europe catches cold.”  In Africa, it often said that “when the Horn of Africa sneezes East Africa catches cold” and above and beyond. We would like to avert this horrific development situation in the Horn of Africa and beyond. Egypt should revisit its foreign policy dichotomy in the region before it is too late for a war to erupt in the Horn of Africa. Succinctly, the prevention of war means that the presence of peace and the lack of peace also mean the presence of war. Hence, the epic or episode hovering over us now in the region is either a situation of no war or peace and the greatest of all is peace.

The Greater Ethiopian Regional Dam or Renaissance Dam should go ahead as planned by the Ethiopian Government and all its partners. It poses neither water problems for Egypt now nor in the foreseeable future. Egyptian Government should not be adamantly against the construction of the GERD because when Egypt begun the construction of the Aswan High Dam with Russian technology and engineering in the 1960s, it did not care to consultant any members of NBCs at all. In addition, when Egypt begun to pipeline the Nile waters into Sinai for possible illegal and crochet sales of such water Israel and other Arab countries in need of water, it did neither confer with any of the NBC member states nor with Ethiopia. So why Ethiopia one of Africa’s oldest empire, now a republic and as an independence and sovereign de jure state should consult Egypt first on the construction of the GERD? The Renaissance Dam is not located in Egypt’s territory but Ethiopia’s territorial integrity and its sovereignty. Conclusively, Egyptian claims against Ethiopia are euphorically and diabolical. Ethiopia should let the dog barks and the camel moves on. Cairo cannot do anything against Ethiopia because all Ethiopians of different background shall and will stand up to confront Egypt and the OLF alike.

Egypt’s supports of OLF against Ethiopia would not succeed and would put Egypt’s foreign policy in a real dilemma and political limbo with Africa and the world and could possibly de-Nassirize President Gamal Abdul Nasser’s legacy in Sub-Saharan Africa.

In the case of Badme border town between Eritrea and Ethiopia situation that is already under Ethiopian military for years retrospect to 1998 and 2000 up to present such a situation would not augment well with Egyptian foreign policy and its military intervention in violation or in contravention of international law and African international law. It is only a local dispute that could be resolved through the international instruments of peaceful settlements of disputes as stipulated under Article 52 of the UN Charter that empowered and authorized regional powers to deal with such issues through peaceful settlement of disputes. Badme town case is a regional problem that would require the African Union (AU) in the search for a tenable reasonable alternative peaceful and political solution. Nevertheless, Egypt’s to undertake a unilateral military intervention in Badme border town between the two sisters,  it would seem contrary to, inter alia, African international relations, African international law, and inter-states relations, respectively..

Egypt’s support for Salva Kiir’s criminal, barbaric, illegal, and genocidal regime in Juba would not succeed in this project, unfortunately. Egypt’s dream of completion of excavation of the unfinished Jongeli Canal would neither occur now nor in the foreseeable future. Let be known to Egyptian invaders and occupiers that because the unfinished Jomglei Canal is under the control of IO and other rebel forces combined in the area that would make it imperatively impractical, if not impossible, to attain such a dream. It would surely escalate the genocidal war and the continuous use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in South Sudan to the Maximum. Most importantly, any claims by the Egyptians would become absurd abs absurdities.

The recent Egyptian politico-military intervention in Ethiopia, South Sudan, and Sudan, respectively, has already violated the international law context and the effects of the treaties governing the Nile Water. From hereontofore, Egypt should reckon that the 1929 and 1959 on the Nile Water treaties are obsolete and should be declared invalidated, null and void. New formula for the Nile Water distribution must and ought to be designed that would equitably provides sharing of the Nile and every country of the NBC should do as it pleases on the Nile water and no more Egyptian monopoly. In South Sudan, though we have sufficient rainfalls, we do, of Course, anticipate diverting the course of the White Nile (Kier en boor); Zeraf (Phow); Sobat; Gillo; Akobo; and Pibor Rivers and their tributaries to all areas that waters seems to be scarce during the dry seasons of the year. We would undergo planning and excavating these pretty urgent demanding development projects immediately following the end of this ongoing war whenever that is and that would be in the foreseeable future..

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